黑色系周度报告-20251107

Report Overview - The report is a weekly report on the black series released by New Era Futures Research on November 7, 2025 [1] Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report Core Views - Long - term: In the steel industry, with the arrival of the off - season, weak real - estate data, and environmental restrictions, both supply and demand are expected to weaken. For iron ore, supply is expected to be looser, and the fundamentals will deteriorate. In the glass and soda ash industry, glass supply reduction slightly boosts sentiment but demand improvement is limited. Soda ash has supply decline but high inventory and weak terminal consumption [64][68] - Short - term: Black series varieties showed a downward trend this week. Steel products like rebar, hot - rolled coil, and iron ore are expected to be weak with potential for fluctuations. Glass and soda ash will have range - bound oscillations [65][69] Summary by Section Black Series Weekly Market Review - Rebar (RB2601): The closing price of the futures main contract dropped from 3106 on October 31 to 3034 on November 7, a decrease of 72 (-2.3%). The spot price was 3190, and the basis was 156 [2] - Hot - rolled Coil (HC2601): The futures main contract price fell from 3308 to 3245, a decrease of 63 (-1.9%). The spot price was 3260, and the basis was 15 [2] - Iron Ore (I2601): The futures price decreased from 800 to 760, a drop of 39.5 (-4.9%). The spot price was 787, and the basis was 26 [2] - Coke (J2601): The futures price went from 1777 to 1756, a decrease of 20.5 (-1.2%). The spot price was 1720, and the basis was - 36 [2] - Coking Coal (JM2601): The futures price dropped from 1286 to 1270, a decrease of 16 (-1.2%). The spot price was 1530, and the basis was 260 [2] - Glass (FG601): The futures price increased from 1083 to 1091, an increase of 8 (0.7%). The spot price was 1190, and the basis was 99 [2] - Soda Ash (SA601): The futures price decreased from 1225 to 1210, a decrease of 15 (-1.2%). The spot price was 1262, and the basis was 52 [2] Rebar - Profit: On November 6, the blast - furnace profit of rebar was - 51 yuan/ton [6] - Supply: As of November 7, the blast - furnace operating rate was 83.13%, an increase of 1.38 percentage points. The daily average pig - iron output was 2.3422 million tons, a decrease of 21,400 tons. The rebar output was 2.0854 million tons, a decrease of 40,500 tons [13] - Demand: In the week of November 7, the apparent consumption of rebar was 2.1852 million tons, a decrease of 136,600 tons. As of November 6, the trading volume of construction steel by mainstream traders was 110,265 tons [18] - Inventory: In the week of November 7, the social inventory of rebar was 4.257 million tons, a decrease of 51,100 tons, and the in - plant inventory was 1.6684 million tons, a decrease of 48,700 tons [23] Iron Ore - Supply: In the week of October 31, the global shipment volume of iron ore was 3.2138 million tons, a decrease of 174,600 tons. The arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 3.3141 million tons, an increase of 1.2298 million tons [28] - Inventory: In the week of November 7, the inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 15.62413 million tons, an increase of 351,200 tons, and the inventory of imported iron ore at 247 steel enterprises was 9.00994 million tons, an increase of 160,080 tons [33] - Demand: In the week of November 7, the daily average port clearance volume of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 335,550 tons, an increase of 4330 tons. As of November 6, the trading volume at major Chinese ports was 115,400 tons [38] Float Glass - Supply: In the week of November 7, the number of operating float - glass production lines was 222, a decrease of 4. The weekly output was 1,126,085 tons, a decrease of 2840 tons. As of November 6, the capacity utilization rate was 79.56%, and the operating rate was 75% [43] - Inventory: In the week of November 7, the in - plant inventory of float glass was 63.136 million weight - boxes, a decrease of 2.654 million weight - boxes compared to November 6. The available inventory days were 27.1 days, a decrease of 0.9 days [48] Soda Ash - Supply: In the week of November 7, the capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 85.67%, a decrease of 1.22 percentage points. The output was 746,800 tons, a decrease of 10,800 tons [52] - Inventory: As of November 7, the in - plant inventory of soda ash was 1.7142 million tons, an increase of 12,200 tons [57] - Sales - to - production Ratio: As of November 7, the sales - to - production ratio of soda ash was 98.36%, a decrease of 1.65 percentage points [61]