能化板块周度报告-20251107

Report Overview - The report is a weekly data report on the energy and chemical sector, including the polyester and methanol segments, released by New Era Futures Research on November 7, 2025 [1][2][4][30] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - In the short - term, the PX supply pressure is not significant, the PTA supply is expected to tighten, and their盘面 performance is relatively strong, but the demand - side drive is insufficient, limiting the rebound space. The supply of ethylene glycol is expected to increase slightly, and with rigid demand, it has insufficient rebound momentum and is expected to fluctuate at a low level. In the long - term, the demand drive is insufficient, and supply changes dominate the market rhythm. In the fourth quarter, the polyester sector shows a differentiated trend, with PX and PTA being relatively strong and ethylene glycol being under pressure. For methanol, in the short - term, the high - supply and high - inventory situation continues, MTO is continuously losing money, and the main demand support weakens, so it may fluctuate in the bottom range. In the long - term, the inflection point of port inventory is the core point, and if the medium - and long - term signals are positive, methanol has the basis for a stable rebound [28][47] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro and Crude Oil Important News - Saudi Aramco lowered the official selling price (OSP) for Asian customers in December, indicating a cautious attitude towards the crude oil demand outlook. OPEC+ will maintain the production increase rhythm in December but suspend the increase plan in the first three months of 2026. The US sanctions on Russian oil companies have led to a significant reduction in Russia's crude oil exports to India. US commercial crude oil inventories increased due to a large increase in imports, while gasoline inventories continued to decline [5][6] 3.2 Futures and Spot Prices - WTI crude oil futures prices decreased by 1.34% week - on - week, while naphtha spot prices increased by 0.54%. PX601 futures prices increased by 6.96%, and PX CFR in Taiwan increased by 1.19%. TA601 futures prices increased by 2.58%, and PTA spot benchmark prices increased by 0.22%. EG601 futures prices decreased by 2.68%, and ethylene glycol's East China mainstream price decreased by 4.03%. PF512 futures prices increased by 1.12%, and polyester staple fiber's East China mainstream price decreased by 0.55%. PR601 futures prices increased by 0.75%, and polyester bottle chip's East China mainstream price increased by 0.17% [9] 3.3 Supply - side Analysis 3.3.1 PX - Dalian Fujia's 70 - ton device restarted and ran at full capacity, and another 70 - ton device is planned to restart next week. As of November 7, the domestic PX weekly average capacity utilization rate was 89.03%, a 1.25% increase from last week, and the PX output was 74.67 tons, a 1.25% increase [13] 3.3.2 PTA - Dongying Weilian reduced its load, Yisheng Dahua increased its load after reduction, Dushan Energy's old 250 - ton device was under maintenance after the new 300 - ton device was put into production, and Xinjiang Zhongtai's 120 - ton device restarted. As of November 7, the domestic PTA weekly capacity utilization rate was 77.69%, a 0.69 - percentage - point decrease from last week, and the weekly output was 148.483 tons, a 3.45 - ton increase. PTA social inventory increased slightly. Under low processing fees, large PTA manufacturers have maintenance expectations, but the implementation needs attention [14] 3.3.3 Ethylene Glycol - Fujian United restarted, Sanjiang Chemical increased its load, and some devices were under maintenance. As of November 7, the domestic ethylene glycol weekly average capacity utilization rate was 65.88%, a 0.04 - percentage - point increase. Coal - based devices are planned to restart, and the domestic supply is expected to increase slightly. Port inventory increased, but the inventory accumulation rhythm may slow down [15][16] 3.3.4 Methanol - As of November 6, the methanol production start - up rate was 87.79%, a 1.18 - percentage - point increase, and the domestic output was 199.2 tons, a 1.37% increase. This week, the total restored production capacity was about 2.91 million tons/year, and the total lost production capacity was about 2 million tons/year. Next week, the planned restored production capacity is about 1.6 million tons/year, with no new maintenance plans [39][40] 3.4 Demand - side Analysis 3.4.1 Polyester - The weekly average start - up rate of the polyester end was 87.8%, a 0.26 - percentage - point increase. Polyester staple fiber and filament inventories decreased slightly. New device production was postponed, and large - scale maintenance was postponed. Next week, polyester device changes are limited, and production is expected to increase slightly. Weaving orders decreased, and procurement was mainly rigid [17][20] 3.4.2 Methanol - The MTO start - up rate continued to decline, and Shandong Hengtong entered maintenance. Traditional downstream industries entered the off - season, and the overall start - up rate decreased, with weak demand support [43] 3.5 Inventory Analysis 3.5.1 PTA - As of November 6, PTA factory inventory was available for 4.09 days (a 0.06 - day increase), polyester factory PTA inventory was 6.10 days (a 0.35 - day decrease), and PTA social inventory was about 316.08 tons (a 2.53 - ton increase) [14] 3.5.2 Ethylene Glycol - As of November 6, the East China port inventory was 56.4 tons, a 6.5 - ton increase from last Thursday and a 5.3 - ton increase from Monday [16] 3.5.3 Methanol - As of November 5, the port inventory was 151.71 tons, a 1.06 - ton increase, and the inland inventory was 38.64 tons, a 1.03 - ton increase. The port inventory increased slightly due to the unmet unloading expectations, and the inland inventory continued to increase due to high supply and reverse flow of port goods [46] 3.6 Strategy Recommendations 3.6.1 Polyester Sector - Short - term: PX supply pressure is not significant, PTA supply is expected to tighten, and the disk is relatively strong, but the demand - side drive is insufficient, and the rebound space is limited. Ethylene glycol may fluctuate at a low level. Long - term: The demand drive is insufficient, and the supply change dominates the market rhythm. PX and PTA are relatively strong, and ethylene glycol is under pressure [28] 3.6.2 Methanol - Short - term: The high - supply and high - inventory situation continues, MTO is continuously losing money, and methanol may fluctuate in the bottom range. Long - term: Focus on the port inventory inflection point and the import reduction caused by Iran's gas restriction. If the long - term signal is positive, methanol has the basis for a stable rebound [47] 3.7 Next Week's Concerns - For the polyester sector, concerns include the change in the Russia - Ukraine situation, macro - market sentiment, and the operation of upstream and downstream devices. For methanol, concerns include high - inventory pressure, the recovery of maintenance devices, and macro - market sentiment [29][48]