蛋白粕月报 2025/11/07：成本支撑，油弱粕强-20251107

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The import cost of soybeans is expected to fluctuate. Although there are signals of China importing US soybeans, the rise in US soybean prices may be offset by the decline in Brazilian premium. In the short - term, domestic soybean meal is expected to rise with the import cost, and the profit from oil - mill crushing is expected to recover, which will stimulate soybean purchases. In the medium - term, the expectation of a loose global soybean supply remains unchanged, so it is advisable to sell on rebounds [10][11][12] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - International Soybeans: In October, US soybeans rebounded as the market anticipated China's purchase after the APEC meeting. Brazilian new - crop soybeans are being planted normally, with an expected planting progress of 50% by early November. The Brazilian premium has been decreasing, but the increase in US soybean prices has led to a slight rise in the cost of imported soybeans in China. Currently, the cost - side valuation is neutral, and the import cost is expected to fluctuate [10] - Domestic Double - Meal: In October, the domestic soybean meal spot price followed the futures price higher, and the basis weakened. The futures price increased with the cost, and the oil - mill crushing profit on the futures market recovered after reaching the bottom. Domestic soybean meal trading was average, but the pick - up volume was relatively high. The inventory days of feed enterprises were 8.02 days, slightly higher than the same period last year. The current soybean purchase schedule indicates a continuous decline in domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories, which provides some support for the domestic soybean - related basis [10] - Trading Strategy: For unilateral trading, the market is expected to fluctuate. In the short - term, soybean meal may rise with the import cost, and the profit from crushing will recover, stimulating purchases. In the medium - term, due to the expected loose global soybean supply, it is recommended to sell on rebounds. No specific strategy is provided for arbitrage [12] 3.2 Periodic and Spot Market - Spot Price: The report provides historical price charts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong, including the spot prices of soybean meal in Dongguan and rapeseed meal in Huangpu [19] - Basis of Main Contracts: Charts of the basis of soybean meal 01 contract and rapeseed meal 01 contract are presented, showing the relationship between the basis and the spot price [22] - Spread: Multiple spread charts are provided, such as the spread between soybean meal 11 - 1, 01 - 05, 03 - 05, and 01 - rapeseed meal 01 contracts [24] - Fund Position: Charts of the net long positions of US soybean and US soybean meal management funds are shown, along with the relationship between the net long positions and the futures closing prices [27][29] 3.3 Supply Side - US Soybean Planting Progress: Charts of US soybean planting progress, emergence rate, flowering rate, and good - to - excellent rate are presented [33] - Weather Conditions: There is a possibility of La Nina occurring from October 2025 to January. The report provides precipitation charts of US and Brazilian soybean - producing areas, as well as the impact of La Nina on precipitation and climate in North America and South America [36][37] - US Soybean Export Progress: Multiple charts are provided, including the total amount of US soybean export contracts signed with China in the current market year, the sales completion rate of US soybeans in the current year, the total amount of US soybean export contracts signed in the current market year, and the cumulative export shipment volume of US soybeans to China [50] - China's Oilseed Imports: Charts of monthly soybean and rapeseed import volumes and forecasts are presented [53] - China's Oil - Mill Crushing: Charts of the soybean and rapeseed crushing volumes of major oil mills are provided [55] 3.4 Profit and Inventory - Oilseed Inventory: Charts of soybean port inventory and the rapeseed inventory of major oil mills are presented [59] - Protein Meal Inventory: Charts of the soybean meal inventory and forecast of coastal major oil mills and the rapeseed meal inventory of coastal major oil mills are provided [62] - Protein Meal Crushing Profit: Charts of the crushing profit of imported soybeans in Guangdong and the crushing profit of imported rapeseed in coastal areas are presented [64] 3.5 Demand Side - Soybean Meal Transaction and Consumption: Charts of the cumulative transaction volume of soybean meal in major oil mills in the crop year and the apparent consumption of soybean meal are presented [66] - Breeding Profit: Charts of the average profit per head of self - breeding and self - raising pigs and the breeding profit of white - feather broilers are presented [68]