苯乙烯月报：原油或已筑底，苯乙烯仍有空间-20251107

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in Q1 2026, and crude oil prices may have bottomed out. The overall valuation of styrene is moderately high. In the context of a narrowing supply of pure benzene, styrene production has been continuously decreasing. Although the seasonal peak season has arrived and the downstream "Three S" production has rebounded slightly, under the reality of weak supply and demand, even a significant reduction in styrene factory inventories cannot fully digest the high port inventories, resulting in weak upward support. In the short term, styrene is expected to fluctuate with a downward bias [11][12]. - Next - month forecast: Styrene (EB2512) is expected to fluctuate in the range of 6100 - 6400; Pure benzene (BZ2603) is expected to fluctuate in the range of 5300 - 5600. It is recommended to hold short positions [12]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Policy: OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in Q1 2026, and crude oil prices may have bottomed out [11]. - Valuation: Styrene has seen monthly declines (cost > futures > spot), with a strengthening basis, a weakening BZN spread, and strengthening profits for non - integrated EB plants [11]. - Cost: The spot price of pure benzene in East China decreased by 8.02% this month, the closing price of the active pure benzene contract dropped by 6.59%, and the basis decreased by 83 yuan/ton. Pure benzene production has fallen to the lowest level in the same period. In September, China's pure benzene imports were 4.3507 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.39% and a year - on - year increase of 2.88%, mainly from the Middle East [11]. - Supply: The utilization rate of EB production capacity was 66.72%, a month - on - month decrease of 8.85%, a year - on - year decrease of 1.74%, and a decrease of 11.39% compared to the five - year average. According to the production plan, the production pressure in the fourth quarter will increase month - on - month, and the supply side may face pressure [11]. - Import and Export: In September, EB imports were 246,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.39% and a year - on - year increase of 2.42% [11]. - Demand: The weighted operating rate of the downstream "Three S" was 42.09%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.59%. The PS operating rate was 52.00%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.35% and a year - on - year decrease of 8.55%. The EPS operating rate was 62.24%, a month - on - month increase of 0.43% and a year - on - year increase of 9.59%. The ABS operating rate was 72.10%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.96% and a year - on - year increase of 4.77%. During the seasonal peak season, the increase in the operating rate was less than in previous years [11]. - Inventory: The in - factory inventory of EB was 180,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.02% and a year - on - year increase of 25.75%. The inventory at Jiangsu ports of EB was 179,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11.19% and a year - on - year increase of 586.97%. The port inventory of pure benzene has significantly decreased, but the port inventory of styrene remains at a high level [12]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market The content mainly presents multiple charts related to styrene, including spot prices, futures contract prices, basis, trading volume, open interest, and various price spreads from 2021 - 2025, but no specific text summaries are provided [15][17][19]. 3.3 Profit and Inventory - Profit: Styrene profits are oscillating at a low level. The profit of the ethylbenzene dehydrogenation process and the POSM process are presented in charts, and the production process proportion of styrene shows that the ethylbenzene dehydrogenation method accounts for 85%, the PO/SM co - production method accounts for 12%, and the C8 extraction method accounts for 3% [41][44][45]. - Inventory: Charts show the port inventory of pure benzene, styrene, and the factory inventory of styrene from 2021 - 2025 [34][35][37]. 3.4 Cost Side - Production Plan: In 2025, the total planned production capacity of pure benzene is 2.28 million tons, and the total planned production capacity of pure benzene downstream is 3.11 million tons. There are specific production plans for different quarters and regions [51]. - BZN Spread: The BZN spread continues to oscillate downward [57]. - Pure Benzene Production: Pure benzene production is at a low level in the same period. The production of phenol and aniline has seen continuous profit declines, and the operating rate is oscillating moderately. The inventory of caprolactam factories is oscillating at a high level [65][73][85]. 3.5 Supply Side - Supply Increase: In Q4 2025, the supply of styrene will increase, which may suppress prices. The planned production capacity of styrene in 2025 is 2.42 million tons, and the planned production capacity of its downstream is 4.198 million tons, with a supply - demand gap of - 997,300 tons [95][97]. - Production Decline: Styrene production has been continuously decreasing, and relevant charts show the weekly production, import volume, export volume, etc. from 2021 - 2025 [105][107][112]. 3.6 Demand Side - Production Rebound: The operating rates of EPS, PS, and ABS have rebounded with profits. There are also charts showing the monthly sales, production, and inventory of household refrigerators and washing machines, as well as the demand proportion of styrene downstream [115][123][133].