工业硅&多晶硅月报：工业硅企稳等待新变量，多晶硅延续政策叙事-20251107

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the supply and demand sides are weak, with costs such as electricity prices and coal coke remaining stable. Prices are expected to consolidate and await new drivers. In November, the production of polysilicon is scheduled to decline, and the demand for industrial silicon will be less supported. The output of silicone is expected to be stable, and the high inventory has limited marginal impact on prices [15]. - For polysilicon, in November, some production capacities will undergo maintenance, and the production schedule will decrease. The supply - demand pattern may improve marginally, but the short - term inventory reduction is expected to be limited. The market will continue to bet on the establishment of the platform company, and price fluctuations may occur. Attention should be paid to position control and follow - up progress [17]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Production Data: In October, the polysilicon output was 134,000 tons (SMM), with a cumulative output of 1.0751 million tons from January to October, a year - on - year decrease of 30.30%. The DMC output was 200,900 tons (Baichuan Yingfu), with a cumulative output of 2.0627 million tons from January to October, a year - on - year increase of 14.39%. From January to September, the cumulative output of aluminum alloy was 14.116 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.544 million tons or 21.98%. The cumulative net export of industrial silicon was 453,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 27,700 tons or 5.27% [13]. - Inventory: At the end of October, the industrial silicon inventory was 684,000 tons (Baichuan Yingfu), including 264,700 tons in factory inventory, 183,000 tons in market inventory, and 236,300 tons in registered warehouse receipts [13]. 3.2 Spot and Futures Market - Industrial Silicon: As of October 31, 2025, the spot price of 553 (non - oxygenated) industrial silicon in East China was 9,300 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous month; the spot price of 421 industrial silicon was 9,700 yuan/ton, with a discounted futures price of 8,900 yuan/ton, also unchanged [22]. - Polysilicon: As of October 31, 2025, the average price of N - type re - feeding polysilicon was 52.25 yuan/kg, a monthly decrease of 0.3 yuan/kg; the average price of N - type dense polysilicon was 51 yuan/kg, a monthly decrease of 0.05 yuan/kg [25]. 3.3 Industrial Silicon - Production: In October 2025, the industrial silicon output was 404,800 tons (Baichuan Yingfu), a month - on - month increase of 20,800 tons. The cumulative output from January to October was 3.3393 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 637,900 tons or 16.04% [30]. - Cost: At the end of October, the average production cost in Xinjiang was 8,473.08 yuan/ton, 9,387.50 yuan/ton in Yunnan, and 9,104.76 yuan/ton in Sichuan [44]. - Inventory: At the end of October, the industrial silicon inventory was 684,000 tons (Baichuan Yingfu), remaining at a high level [47]. 3.4 Polysilicon - Production: In October, the polysilicon output was 134,000 tons (SMM), a month - on - month increase of 4,000 tons. The cumulative output from January to October was 1.0751 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 30.30% [52]. - Inventory: At the end of October, the polysilicon inventory was 276,200 tons (Baichuan Yingfu) and 261,000 tons (SMM), with factory inventory accumulating [58]. - Cost and Profit: At the end of October, the production cost of polysilicon was 41,553 yuan/ton, and the gross profit was 8,697 yuan/ton, indicating relatively good profitability [61]. 3.5 Silicone - Production: In October, the DMC output was 200,900 tons (Baichuan Yingfu), a month - on - month decrease of 7,900 tons. The cumulative output from January to October was 2.0627 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.39% [90]. - Price and Profit: As of October 31, 2025, the average price of silicone was 11,000 yuan/ton, a monthly decrease of 50 yuan/ton. The DMC gross profit was - 1,440.63 yuan/ton [93]. - Inventory: At the end of October, the DMC inventory was 44,100 tons (Baichuan Yingfu), a month - on - month decrease of 400 tons [96]. 3.6 Silicon - Aluminum Alloy and Exports - Aluminum Alloy: As of October 31, 2025, the price of primary aluminum alloy A356 was 21,720 yuan/ton, a monthly increase of 590 yuan/ton; the price of recycled aluminum alloy ADC12 was 21,340 yuan/ton, a monthly increase of 400 yuan/ton. From January to September, the cumulative output of aluminum alloy was 14.116 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.544 million tons or 21.98% [101]. - Exports: From January to September, the cumulative net export of industrial silicon was 453,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 27,700 tons or 5.27% [107].