铂族金属月报：宏观支撑弱化，价格将维持盘整-20251107

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This month, affected by the performance of precious metal prices, the prices of platinum - group metals generally showed a pattern of rising first and then falling. The price of the NYMEX platinum main contract fell 7.01% to $1,538 per ounce this month, while the price of the NYMEX palladium main contract rose slightly by 0.36% to $1,389 per ounce. The price performance of platinum - group metals is significantly affected by the prices of gold and silver and shows greater price fluctuations [9][21][22]. - From a macro perspective, the Fed's "hawkish rate cut" in the October meeting and Powell's remarks on future rate - cut expectations have put significant pressure on the prices of gold and silver, causing them to enter a consolidation range. The price performance of platinum - group metals is also relatively weak. However, the platinum and palladium lease rates are currently at the highest levels in the same period in recent years, indicating that the overseas platinum - group metal spot market remains tight. The probability of a sharp decline in platinum - group metal prices in the short term is low, and platinum jewelry demand is supported by the high - price gold. Currently, it is recommended to wait and see and then buy on dips after a new round of macro - driving forces are formed and the prices of gold and silver show strong performance [9]. - Technically, the NYMEX platinum main contract price is expected to maintain a relatively strong consolidation pattern, while the NYMEX palladium main contract price is expected to maintain a weak consolidation pattern [12][15]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Market Outlook - Price Data: The closing price of the NYMEX platinum active contract decreased by 2.16% week - on - week and 7.01% month - on - month to $1,538 per ounce. The five - day average trading volume decreased by 11.55% week - on - week and 34.37% month - on - month. The position of the main contract increased by 0.47% week - on - week but decreased by 16.89% month - on - month. The NYMEX platinum inventory increased by 2.51% week - on - week but decreased by 2.05% month - on - month. The CFTC managed - fund net long position increased by 3,638 hands, and the CFTC commercial net short position increased by 1,178 hands. The platinum ETF position decreased by 0.08% week - on - week [9]. - Price Data for Palladium: The closing price of the NYMEX palladium active contract increased slightly by 0.36% month - on - month to $1,389 per ounce. The five - day average trading volume increased by 65.23% week - on - week but decreased by 27.22% month - on - month. The position of the main contract decreased by 3.27% week - on - week and 27.42% month - on - month. The NYMEX palladium inventory decreased by 2.38% week - on - week and 2.36% month - on - month. The CFTC managed - fund net short position decreased by 15 hands, and the CFTC commercial net short position increased by 216 hands. The palladium ETF position increased by 0.07% week - on - week [9]. - Macro and Market Analysis: The Fed's "hawkish rate cut" and Powell's remarks on inflation and future rate - cut expectations have led to a decline in the expectation of loose monetary policy, putting pressure on the prices of gold and silver and platinum - group metals. However, high lease rates indicate tight overseas spot markets, and platinum jewelry demand is supported by high - price gold [9]. 3.2 Market Review - Platinum Price: The price of the NYMEX platinum main contract fell 7.01% to $1,538 per ounce this month, and the total position as of September 23 was 97,978 hands. The Shanghai Gold Exchange platinum spot price was 413.79 yuan per gram as of November 6, and the domestic platinum premium significantly rebounded due to the adjustment of the import VAT exemption policy [21][25]. - Palladium Price: The price of the NYMEX palladium main contract rose slightly by 0.36% to $1,389 per ounce, and the total position as of the latest report period was 20,282 hands [22]. - Lease Rates: As of November 6, the one - month implied lease rate for platinum was 21.78%, and for palladium was 11.15%, remaining at relatively high levels [29]. - CFTC Net Positions: As of September 23, the NYMEX platinum managed - fund net long position increased to 18,285 hands, and the NYMEX palladium managed - fund net short position was 5,176 hands [32][35]. 3.3 Inventory and ETF Position Changes - Platinum ETF Position: As of November 6, the total position of the platinum ETF was 76.07 tons [46]. - Palladium ETF Position: As of November 6, the total position of the palladium ETF was 14.78 tons [49]. - Platinum Inventory: The US platinum exchange inventory remained at a high level. As of November 6, the CME platinum inventory was 20.54 tons [53]. - Palladium Inventory: The CME palladium inventory as of November 6 was 5,520.72 kilograms [58]. 3.4 Supply and Demand - Platinum Supply: The platinum production forecast of the top 15 global mines shows that the platinum production in the fourth quarter of 2025 will reach 33.18 tons, and the annual production in 2025 will be 127.47 tons, a 1.9% decrease from 2024, indicating a certain contraction expectation in the mine - end supply of platinum this year [64]. - Palladium Supply: The production data of the top 15 global palladium mines show that the total production of the top 15 mines in the fourth quarter of 2025 will be 41.36 tons. The annual production in 2025 will be 165.78 tons, a 0.86% decrease from 2024, showing a slight contraction in the palladium mine - end supply [67]. - Chinese Imports: China's platinum imports in September were 10.7 tons, showing a rebound from August. China's palladium imports in September were 6.5 tons, showing a significant increase from August [70][74]. 3.5 Monthly Spread and Cross - Market Spread - NYMEX Platinum Monthly Spread: Data on the 1 - 4, 4 - 7, 7 - 10, 10 - 1 spreads of NYMEX platinum are presented, showing price differences over different contract periods [90][91]. - NYMEX Palladium Monthly Spread: Data on the 3 - 6, 6 - 9, 9 - 12, 12 - 3 spreads of NYMEX palladium are presented, showing price differences over different contract periods [103][99]. - London - NYMEX Spread: Data on the price differences between the London spot platinum price and the NYMEX platinum price, as well as between the London spot palladium price and the NYMEX palladium price, are presented [105].