鸡蛋周报：需求有所改善，蛋价略有回升-20251107

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report analyzes the egg market from aspects of spot, supply, cost, demand, etc. It points out that although egg demand has improved slightly and prices have rebounded, the overall situation of supply exceeding demand remains unchanged, and the price is still fluctuating at the bottom. The increase in egg prices in the short - term is mainly due to the acceleration of old hen culling and the promotion of "Double 11". The short - term bottom of egg prices is expected to rise, but the long - term price trend still depends on the balance between supply and demand [5][15][18]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Logical Analysis and Trading Strategies 3.1.1 Spot Analysis - The average price of eggs in the main producing areas this week was 2.93 yuan/jin, up 0.05 yuan/jin from last Friday, and the average price in the main selling areas was 3.06 yuan/jin, down 0.08 yuan/jin from last Friday. The egg price is expected to rise in the short - term, and the bottom is expected to be lifted [5]. - The decline of old hen prices has slowed down. The supply of the old hen market is relatively sufficient, and the downstream demand is weak. The price of powder chickens is at a relatively low level, which has a certain supporting effect on the overall chicken price, but some high - price red chicken areas still have a slight decline risk [5]. 3.1.2 Supply Analysis - The national main producing areas' egg - laying hen culling volume in the week of November 06 was 19.81 million, a decrease of 3% from the previous week. The average culling age of culled hens in the week of November 06 was 493 days, a decrease of 1 day from the previous week [12]. - In October, the national in - production egg - laying hen inventory was 1.359 billion, a decrease of 0.01 billion from the previous month, an increase of 5.5% year - on - year, and lower than expected. The monthly hatching volume of egg - laying chicks in sample enterprises in October was 39.2 million, with little change month - on - month and a 13% year - on - year decrease [12]. 3.1.3 Cost Analysis - As of November 06, the corn price was around 2236 yuan/ton, the soybean meal price was 3094 yuan/ton, and the comprehensive feed cost was around 2493 yuan/ton, equivalent to about 2.74 yuan/jin for single - jin eggs [15]. - The egg price first fell and then rose this week, and the overall supply exceeded demand. The average egg price decreased week - on - week, so the breeding profit decreased. As of November 06, the weekly average profit per jin of eggs was - 0.25 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.05 yuan/jin from the previous week [15]. 3.1.4 Demand Analysis - Affected by the "Double 11" promotion, the sales volume in the sales areas increased week - on - week. As of November 06, the sales volume of eggs in the national representative sales areas was 7300 tons, a 4% decrease compared with last week [18]. - The production - link inventory decreased week - on - week, and the circulation - link inventory increased week - on - week. As of November 06, the weekly average inventory in the production link was 1.02 days, a decrease of 0.02 days from last week, and the weekly average inventory in the circulation link was 1.06 days, a decrease of 0.04 days from the previous week [18]. - The vegetable price index and pork price both rebounded slightly this week [18]. 3.1.5 Trading Strategy - The trading logic is that although the culling volume of culled hens has increased and the previous supply pressure has been relieved, the current in - production egg - laying hen inventory is still at a high level, and the short - term capacity reduction speed is expected to be relatively slow. Considering that the current spot average price is still around 2.8 - 2.9 yuan/jin, and the December main contract has given a certain premium, the upward space is expected to be relatively limited [19]. - For trading, it is recommended to wait and see in terms of unilateral trading, arbitrage, and options [19]. 3.2 Second Part: Weekly Data Tracking - Relevant data on egg - laying hen inventory, culling situation, chick replenishment, cold - storage eggs, egg - laying hen breeding, price differences, and basis are presented in graphical form, but no specific numerical analysis and conclusions are given in the text [22][26][27][30].