原油月报：震荡磨底继续维持，结构行情陆续出现-20251107

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The view that oil prices will remain weak at the end of the fourth quarter remains unchanged. If shale oil production is restricted, combined with the peak - season demand in the second quarter of next year and the support of strategic reserves from various countries, long - term positions should be established at low prices based on the shale oil break - even line at the end of the fourth quarter [15][16]. - The PADD5 refining area in the United States has started to transport diesel to Europe, indicating that the arbitrage window has opened, and the diesel crack spread can be shorted at the top [15][16]. - Due to the butterfly effect of the Kuwaiti refinery maintenance, there is a short - to - medium - term shortage of low - sulfur oil in the Middle East. The window to widen the low - high sulfur price spread has opened, and the profit - taking anchor is when Fujairah stops accepting low - sulfur oil [15][16]. - Overall, the upside space for oil prices in the second half of the year is limited. As OPEC's gradual production increase is implemented, the wide - range oscillation center of oil prices is expected to move down slightly. Since shale oil will still play a supporting role, it is difficult to have a continuous trend market, and grasping the driving rhythm will be more important [21]. 3. Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Monthly Assessment & Strategy Recommendation - Market Review: This week, crude oil rebounded sharply due to geopolitical news, then partially gave back the geopolitical premium, and found support near the shale oil cost. When oil prices fell, the US indicated it was a good time to buy strategic reserves at low prices [15]. - Supply - Demand Changes: US refinery demand has stabilized and rebounded. Shale oil did not significantly cut production as before when oil prices fell. At the end of the month, EIA data showed a slight increase in US shale oil production, and refinery demand was lower than expected. OPEC exports began to increase, but most were absorbed by China, so no obvious inventory was seen in the market. In Europe, the overall refined oil inventory continued to decline at a low level, and crude oil inventory increased. European refinery demand is about to enter the peak season, and combined with frequent attacks on Russian refineries, the diesel crack spread remained high [15]. - Macro - Political Situation: At the macro level, Fed officials' speeches generally conveyed a hawkish signal. Politically, the US imposed sanctions on two major Russian oil companies, which affected the shipping routes of Lukoil. The overall macro - liquidity expectation is tight [15]. - Short - Term Impact Factors: Factors such as US SPR procurement, sanctions on Russian oil companies, macro - economic data, and supply - demand situations in non - OPEC and OPEC regions have different impacts on oil prices, with a mixed outlook in the short term [16]. - Medium - Term Impact Factors: Global supply - demand factors in different regions (China, the US, and the Middle East) and macro - political factors (macro and geopolitical) are expected to have a neutral - to - bearish impact on oil prices in the medium term, and the overall oil price trend is expected to be oscillatory and slightly bearish [21]. 3.2 Macro & Geopolitical - Macro Short - Term High - Frequency Indicators: Various indicators such as the US ISM manufacturing PMI, the Citi G10 economic surprise index, the US 10 - year inflation expectation, and the US long - short - term spread are presented, showing the relationship between macro - economic indicators and WTI oil prices [40][41]. - Macro Medium - Term Forecast Indicators: Eurozone and US investment confidence indices, PMI, GDP growth rate forecasts, and their relationships with oil consumption growth rates are shown, providing a medium - term perspective on the macro - economic impact on oil prices [47][48]. - Geopolitical Indicators: The Middle East geopolitical risk index and the high - frequency export statistics of sensitive oil - producing countries (Iran, Libya, Venezuela, and Russia) are presented, showing the relationship between geopolitical factors and WTI oil prices [50][51]. 3.3 Oil Product Spreads - Forward Curve: The WTI crude oil forward curve, the near - far structure of various crude oils, and the WTI crude oil M1/M4 monthly spread and M1 price are presented, reflecting the market's expectations for future oil prices [54][55]. - Inter - regional Spreads: Spreads such as Brent/WTI, Brent/Dubai, INE/WTI, and MRBN/WTI are presented, showing price differences between different regions [57][60]. - Product Spreads: The LGO diesel forward curve, the near - far structure of refined oil products, and spreads such as RB/HO and LGO/RB are presented, showing price differences between different oil products [64][65]. - Crack Spreads: Crack spreads of gasoline, diesel, high - sulfur fuel oil, and low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore, Europe, and the US are presented, reflecting the profitability of refineries [72][73]. 3.4 Crude Oil Supply - Supply: OPEC & OPEC+: A detailed record of OPEC's historical meeting results shows the group's production - adjustment plans over the years, including production cuts, production increases, and extensions of production - adjustment measures [84][85]. - OPEC & OPEC+ Situation Summary: Data on OPEC's 9 - country crude oil production and quotas, OPEC's idle crude oil production capacity, OPEC & OPEC+'s unplanned parking production capacity, and OPEC+'s 19 - country crude oil production and quotas are presented, providing an overview of the supply situation of OPEC and OPEC+ [86][87]. - OPEC 12 - Country Supply (Including Dynamic Forecasts): Production and export volume data and dynamic forecasts of individual OPEC member countries such as Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran, and Kuwait are presented, showing the supply situation of each member country [93][94].