高库存压力加大，甲醇延续跌势

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The price of raw coal is firm, the auction price of mainstream methanol enterprises in the northwest has declined, and the profit of coal - to - methanol is around 390 yuan/ton. The domestic methanol supply is continuously abundant with high and stable operating rates. The US dollar price has accelerated its decline, the import parity has widened, and the overseas operating rate has returned to a high level. The MTO device operating rate has rebounded, and downstream demand is stable. The port inventory accumulation cycle has ended, and the basis is strong; the inventory of inland enterprises has fluctuated slightly. Overall, due to high inventory pressure, methanol will continue its downward trend [4]. Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - Raw Coal Situation: As of November 5, the coal mine operating rate in Ordos was 71%, and in Yulin was 44%. Coal mines resumed production, and the daily coal output in both regions was around 4 million tons. The demand was strong, and the pit - mouth price rose continuously [4]. - Supply Side: The price of raw coal was firm, the auction price of northwest mainstream methanol enterprises fell, and the profit of coal - to - methanol was around 390 yuan/ton. The domestic methanol operating rate was high and stable, and the supply was continuously abundant [4]. - Import Side: The US dollar price accelerated its decline, the import parity widened. Iran's production was fully normal, the non - Iranian operating rate increased slightly, and the overseas operating rate returned to a high level. The China - Europe price difference narrowed, and the Southeast Asian re - export window closed. Iran had loaded 160,000 tons in November, and the bid - winning situation of Iran's concessionary bidding improved, with abundant non - Iranian supplies [4]. - Demand Side: The MTO device operating rate rebounded. Some MTO devices such as Xingxing, Nanjing Chengzhi, Jiangsu Sierbang, Tianjin Bohua, and Ningbo Fude were operating at different loads. The downstream demand was stable [4]. - Inventory Situation: The port inventory accumulation cycle ended, and the basis was strong; the inventory of inland enterprises fluctuated slightly. The international device operating rate increased, and imports recovered. The port spot liquidity was sufficient, but the overall trading was light, and the spot basis was stable [4]. - Trading Strategy: For unilateral trading, short at high levels without chasing the short position; for arbitrage, wait and see; for over - the - counter trading, sell call options [4]. Chapter 2: Weekly Data Tracking - Supply - Domestic: As of November 6, the overall domestic methanol device operating load was 76.09%, a 0.31 - percentage - point increase from last week and a 1.06 - percentage - point increase from the same period last year. The non - integrated methanol average operating load was 68.13%, a 0.43 - percentage - point increase from last week [5]. - Supply - International: From October 25 to October 31, 2025, the international methanol production was 1,030,859 tons, a decrease of 39,050 tons from last week. The device capacity utilization rate was 70.66%, a 2.68% decrease. There were changes in some devices such as the restart of Iran's Marjan, the resumption of the US Nat after a short - stop, the breakdown of Malaysia's Petronas' No. 1 and No. 3 devices, and the restart of a Libyan device after years of shutdown [5]. - Supply - Import: As of November 5, 2025, the Chinese methanol sample arrival volume was 387,000 tons, including 345,800 tons of foreign vessels and 41,200 tons of domestic vessels [5]. - Demand - MTO: As of November 6, 2025, the weekly average capacity utilization rate of MTO devices in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 82.97%, a 0.79 - percentage - point decrease from last week. The national olefin device operating rate was 90.6%, with slight adjustments in the load of some enterprises [5]. - Demand - Traditional: The dimethyl ether capacity utilization rate was 5.79%, a 0.52% decrease from last week. The acetic acid capacity utilization rate was 69.61%, and the formaldehyde operating rate was 41.75%, an increase from last week [5]. - Demand - Direct Sales: The weekly signing volume of methanol sample production enterprises in the northwest region was 23,900 tons, a decrease of 8,500 tons from the previous statistical date, a 26.23% decrease [5]. - Inventory - Enterprise: The production enterprise inventory was 386,400 tons, an increase of 10,400 tons from the previous period. The sample enterprise order backlog was 221,100 tons, an increase of 5,500 tons from the previous period, a 2.57% increase [5]. - Inventory - Port: As of November 5, 2025, the total port inventory was 1,517,100 tons, an increase of 10,600 tons from the previous period. The inventory in East China increased by 24,200 tons, and that in South China decreased by 13,600 tons [5]. - Valuation: The profit of coal - to - methanol in Inner Mongolia was around 390 yuan/ton, and in northern Shaanxi was 322 yuan/ton. The port - to - northern line price difference was 110 yuan/ton, and the port - to - northern Shandong price difference was - 80 yuan/ton. The MTO loss narrowed, and the basis was stable [5]. - Spot Price: The price in Taicang was 2,100 yuan/ton (down 40 yuan), and in the northern line was 1,990 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan) [8]