棉系周报：采摘进入尾声，棉价震荡为主-20251107

Report Title - Cotton Weekly Report: Picking Nears End, Cotton Prices to Fluctuate [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The international cotton market, especially the US cotton market, is expected to move sideways due to limited fundamental changes [8]. - The domestic cotton market is likely to oscillate slightly on the stronger side in the short - term. Although there is selling hedging pressure with new cotton hitting the market, the expected increase in production may be lower than previously thought, and the positive outcome of recent Sino - US trade negotiations has been factored into the market [25][42] Summary by Directory Part I: Domestic and International Market Analysis International Market Analysis - US Cotton Market: The fundamentals remain stable, and the market is expected to move sideways. As of the week ending October 31, 2025, the cumulative inspection volume of US upland cotton and Pima cotton was 732,700 tons, accounting for 23.3% of the estimated annual production, 22% slower year - on - year. The weekly and quarterly deliverable ratios are 80.7% and 78.6% respectively, with the quarterly ratio up slightly. As of September 18, the weekly signing volume of 2025/26 US upland cotton decreased by 54%, and the weekly shipment volume increased by 14% [8]. - Pakistan: As of October 15, 2025, the cumulative new cotton market volume in the 2025/26 season reached 588,000 tons, a 22% year - on - year increase [8]. - Brazil: The IMEA maintains the 2025/26 cotton production forecast in Mato Grosso at 2.62 million tons, a 2.6% increase from the previous season. However, due to rising production costs and low lint prices, farmers' planting willingness is insufficient [8]. - India: The CAI's assessment of the 2024/25 cotton balance sheet remains stable compared to the previous month. The market expects the 2025/26 production to be between 5.525 and 5.61 million tons [8]. - Global: According to the latest September forecast by the USDA, the global cotton production in September was 25.62 million tons, an increase of 230,000 tons month - on - month; total consumption increased by 184,000 tons to 25.68 million tons; and ending stocks decreased by 168,000 tons to 15.92 million tons [8] Domestic Market Logic Analysis - Supply Side: New cotton procurement is nearing completion, and prices are stable. The cost of new cotton is fixed, providing support. As of November 6, the machine - picked cotton purchase index in Xinjiang was 6.26 yuan/kg, and the hand - picked cotton purchase index was 6.98 yuan/kg, both unchanged from the previous day. The total number of Zhengzhou cotton registered warrants and effective forecasts was 4,281, equivalent to 171,200 tons of cotton [25]. - Demand Side: As of November 6, the operating load of mainstream spinning mills was 65.4%, a 0.3% decrease from the previous week. The spinning mills' cotton inventory was 27.20 days. Although some factories increased their procurement of new cotton, most spinning mills remained on the sidelines [25] Option Strategy - The volatility decreased slightly. The PCR of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton was 0.7324, and the trading volume PCR was 0.5889. It is recommended to wait and see [39] Futures Trading Strategy - Unilateral: The US cotton and Zhengzhou cotton are expected to move sideways [42]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [42] Part II: Weekly Data Tracking - Internal and External Price Difference: Charts show the historical trends of the internal - external cotton price difference and the 9 - 1 price difference [45][46]. - Mid - stream Situation: Data on the operating load of pure cotton yarn mills, full - cotton grey fabric mills, and the inventory days of yarn and grey fabric are presented [49]. - Cotton Inventory: The table shows the historical data of national commercial cotton inventory, industrial cotton inventory of spinning mills, and reserve inventory [51]. - Spot - Futures Basis: Charts display the basis trends of cotton in January, May, and September, as well as the basis of US cotton and the basis between cotton yarn spot and Zhengzhou cotton yarn active contracts [54]