甲醇月报：港口库存历史高位，警惕进一步下跌风险-20251107

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints of the Report - In October, methanol prices accelerated their decline, with the 01 contract dropping by 148 yuan. The spot market also weakened. The expected overseas production cuts did not materialize, and port inventories remained at historically high levels. The market is following a "weak reality" logic. The 1 - 5 spread has been in a contango pattern. There are expectations for supply - demand improvement in the 05 contract. The current market situation is characterized by increased supply and weak demand, with high inventory levels posing significant pressure on the market. Given the current situation, it is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see strategy [11]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Market Review: In October, the methanol 01 contract dropped by 148 yuan, and the spot market weakened. The expected overseas production cuts did not occur, and port inventories remained high. The 1 - 5 spread continued to widen in contango, and there are expectations for supply - demand improvement in the 05 contract [11]. - Fundamentals - Supply: In October, domestic methanol production was 8.78 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.7%. Coal prices have been rising, but it has not affected methanol production enthusiasm. Imports remained high, with the latest arrival at 387,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 39,300 tons [11]. - Demand: Port olefin plants continued to reduce their operating rates, with the latest operating rate at 82.97%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.79%. After the "Golden September and Silver October" period, traditional demand entered the off - season, and operating rates declined [11]. - Valuation: Port inventories remained high, and the basis and 1 - 5 spread were both at low levels compared to the same period. Coal prices continued to rise, and methanol production profits continued to decline, but the current profit level is still considered neutral. As methanol prices dropped, MTO profits improved significantly [11]. - Inventory: Port inventories were 1.5171 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 10,600 tons, and were at a high level compared to the same period and difficult to reduce significantly in the short term. Enterprise inventories were 386,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10,400 tons [11]. - Market Logic: There is not enough time for the bullish factors of the 01 contract to materialize, and the weak reality is difficult to improve. The market continued to decline, and the 1 - 5 spread continued to narrow [11]. - Strategy: It is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see strategy [11]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - Basis and Spread: The 1 - 5 spread reached a record low, and the basis was at a low level compared to the same period [20]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The market continued to decline with increasing open interest [23]. 3. Profit and Inventory - Raw Material Prices: Coal prices have increased significantly [27]. - Production Profits: Methanol production profits continued to decline [35]. - Port Inventories: Port inventories are at historically high levels [39]. 4. Supply Side - Upstream Production and Operating Rates: Overseas operating rates remained high, and domestic operating rates increased [47]. - Imports: Import volumes remained high, and the latest arrival was 387,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 39,300 tons [11][50]. - Arrival Volumes: Arrival volumes in different regions are presented in relevant charts [58][59]. - International Spreads: Import profits and various international price spreads are analyzed in relevant charts [61]. - Domestic Freight Rates: Domestic freight rates for methanol are presented in relevant charts [66]. 5. Demand Side - Demand Projection: Consumption and inventory data are presented in relevant charts [70]. - Methanol - to - Olefins: Olefin operating rates and MTO operating rates in Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions are presented in relevant charts. The profits of MTO plants such as Fude and Xingxing are also analyzed [73]. - PP Production Profits: Production profits of PP through different processes are presented in relevant charts [81]. - Other Downstream Products: Operating rates, profits, and inventory data of other downstream products such as 1,4 - butanediol, acetic acid, formaldehyde, and dimethyl ether are presented in relevant charts [91][93][95]. - Related Product Ratios: Ratios of methanol to other related products such as urea, crude oil, and动力煤 are presented in relevant charts [101]. 6. Options - Related - Methanol Options: Data on methanol option trading volume, open interest, and PCR are presented in relevant charts [105]. - Methanol Option Volatility: Volatility data of methanol options are presented in relevant charts [108]. 7. Industry Structure Diagram - Industry structure diagrams of the methanol industry and a research framework analysis mind - map are presented [110].