基差方向周度预测-20251107

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - The ADP employment figures in the US in October significantly exceeded expectations, reversing the downward trend from the previous month's revised data, indicating signs of stabilization in the labor market, and the ISM Services PMI reached a new high in nearly 8 months. However, due to the ongoing government shutdown in the US and the delay in official data release, the market has concerns about the economic and employment outlook, and the expectation of an interest rate cut in December remains volatile [2]. - Despite being affected by overseas markets, A - shares showed resilience. The index remained in the consolidation range after breaking through 4000 points. The Shanghai Composite Index rose nearly 1% this week, returning to the 4000 - point level. The large - cap broad - based indices were relatively stronger, with the Shanghai 50 and CSI 300 rising about 0.8% for the week, leading the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 [2]. - The trading volume this week decreased significantly compared to last week, with the average daily volume less than 2 trillion. The inflow of margin trading slowed down, and the market entered a phase of volume - contraction game [2]. - The "dividend + micro - cap" old dumbbell structure returned in terms of style. The CSI Dividend and micro - cap stock indices led the core indices, while the Beijing Stock Exchange and Sci - tech Innovation Board lagged behind [2]. - The basis of all varieties weakened slightly compared to last week. The premium of IH narrowed to less than 1%, and the annualized discounts of IF, IC, and IM reached 2.5%, 9.9%, and 12.7% respectively, still at the lower quartile in the past three years. The near - end of the term structure declined slightly, with little overall change from last week, and long - short diversified hedging can still be maintained [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Weekly Forecast Conclusion of Basis Direction - This week's model predicts that the basis of IH, IF, IC, and IM will move in the directions of strengthening, weakening, strengthening, and weakening respectively next week [4]. Recent Forecast Conclusion - Specific data on the predicted basis changes of IH, IF, and IC are provided, but the information is presented in a somewhat disorganized manner in the text [3]. This Week's Review - The ADP employment data in the US in October reversed the previous decline, and the ISM Services PMI reached a new high, but market concerns persisted due to the government shutdown and data delay. The A - share market showed resilience despite overseas shocks, with the index rising and the large - cap broad - based indices performing better. The trading volume decreased, and the "dividend + micro - cap" style returned. The basis of all varieties weakened slightly [2].