Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Demand side: High - level consumption of power and energy - storage batteries continues, product prices in all links of the lithium - battery industry chain are strong, and the sentiment in the equity market is optimistic. It is expected that the production of battery materials in November will reach the annual peak, driving the continuous growth of lithium carbonate demand [12]. - Supply side: The probability of a delay in supply recovery at the mining end is relatively high, which alleviates the short - term supply release pressure. The domestic lithium carbonate inventory reduction is expected to continue until the end of the year, with strong spot support [12]. - Capital side: When prices fall, short - sellers' profit - taking is obvious, and the willingness of the industry to hedge increases after the price rebound. It is expected that lithium prices will fluctuate in a short - term range. It is recommended to pay attention to the trend of ore prices, the production schedule of lithium - battery materials in December, and changes in the atmosphere of the equity market [12]. Summary by Directory 1. Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Periodic and Spot Market: On November 7, the MMLC lithium carbonate spot index was reported at 79,927 yuan in the morning, up 9.5% from the end of September. The closing price of LC2601 on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 82,300 yuan, up 1.88% this week and 12.9% from the end of September [12]. - Supply: On November 6, the weekly output of domestic lithium carbonate reported by SMM was 21,534 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.2%. In October 2025, the domestic lithium carbonate output was 92,260 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.7%, a year - on - year increase of 54.6%, and the cumulative year - on - year increase in the first 10 months was 43.2%. In September 2025, Chile exported 15,900 tons of lithium carbonate, a year - on - year decrease of 13% and a month - on - month decrease of 6%. In October, Chile exported 25,000 tons of lithium carbonate, a month - on - month increase of 56% [12]. - Demand: According to the preliminary statistics of the Passenger Car Association, from October 1st to 31st, the retail sales of the new - energy passenger vehicle market nationwide were 1.4 million, a year - on - year increase of 17% and a month - on - month increase of 8%. The cumulative retail sales this year were 10.27 million, a year - on - year increase of 23% [12]. - Inventory: On November 6, the weekly inventory of domestic lithium carbonate was reported at 123,953 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3,405 tons (- 2.7%). The consumption growth rate is higher than that on the supply side, and inventory depletion is accelerating. On the same day, the registered warehouse receipts of lithium carbonate on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange were 26,420 tons [12]. - Cost: On November 7, the quotation of Australian imported SC6 lithium concentrate reported by SMM was 920 - 960 US dollars per ton, a decrease of 4.57% this week [12]. 2. Periodic and Spot Market - On November 7, the MMLC lithium carbonate spot index was reported at 79,927 yuan in the morning, up 9.5% from the end of September, and the average price of MMLC battery - grade lithium carbonate was 80,150 yuan. The closing price of LC2601 on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 82,300 yuan, up 1.88% this week and 12.9% from the end of September [12][20]. - The average discount of the exchange - standard electric carbon trading market was - 100 yuan, up 50 yuan this week. The net short - position of the lithium carbonate contract's main force decreased [23]. - The price difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 2,200 yuan, and the price difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide was 4,820 yuan [27]. 3. Supply Side - On November 6, the weekly output of domestic lithium carbonate reported by SMM was 21,534 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.2%. In October 2025, the domestic lithium carbonate output was 92,260 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.7%, a year - on - year increase of 54.6%, and the cumulative year - on - year increase in the first 10 months was 43.2% [32]. - In October, the output of lithium carbonate from lithium spodumene was 57,150 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.1%, a year - on - year increase of 74.0%, and the cumulative year - on - year increase in the first ten months was 74.6%. The output of lithium carbonate from lithium mica was 12,720 tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.8%, and the cumulative year - on - year increase in the first ten months was 17.8% [35]. - In October, the output of lithium carbonate from salt lakes increased by 15.7% month - on - month to 13,840 tons, and the cumulative year - on - year increase from January to October was 9.9%. The output of lithium carbonate from the recycling end was 8,550 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.0%, and the cumulative year - on - year increase from January to October was 25.2% [38]. - In September 2025, China imported 19,596 tons of lithium carbonate, a month - on - month decrease of 10.3% and a year - on - year increase of 20.5%. From January to September, the total import volume of lithium carbonate in China was about 173,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.2%. In September, Chile exported 15,900 tons of lithium carbonate, a year - on - year decrease of 13% and a month - on - month decrease of 6%. In October, Chile exported 25,000 tons of lithium carbonate, a month - on - month increase of 56% [41]. 4. Demand Side - The battery field dominates lithium demand. In 2024, the global consumption accounted for 87%. The main growth point of future lithium salt consumption still depends on the growth of the lithium - battery industry, while the traditional application fields have limited proportion and weak growth [45]. - In September 2025, the global sales volume of new - energy vehicles was about 2.1 million. From January to September, the total sales volume of new - energy vehicles in Europe was 2.716 million, a year - on - year increase of 27.6%. From January to September, the total sales volume of new - energy vehicles in the United States was 1.232 million, a year - on - year increase of 11.4% [48][51]. - According to the China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance, in September, the total output of power and other batteries in China was 151.2 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 8.3% and a year - on - year increase of 35.4%. From January to September, the cumulative output of power and other batteries in China was 1,121.9 GWh, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 51.4% [54]. - From January to September, the cumulative output of domestic lithium iron phosphate increased by 47.0% year - on - year, and the output of domestic ternary materials increased by 15.4% year - on - year. From October to November, the output of battery materials will reach the annual peak, driving the continuous growth of lithium carbonate demand [57]. 5. Inventory - On November 6, the weekly inventory of domestic lithium carbonate was reported at 123,953 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3,405 tons (- 2.7%), and inventory depletion accelerated. On the same day, the registered warehouse receipts of lithium carbonate on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange were 26,420 tons [64]. - The inventory of cathode materials is at a high level, and downstream demand is booming. The consumption of power batteries and energy - storage batteries is strong, and the inventory is at a recent low [67]. 6. Cost Side - On November 7, the quotation of Australian imported SC6 lithium concentrate reported by SMM was 920 - 960 US dollars per ton. Recently, the inventory pressure of lithium ore has been relieved. If the price of lithium salt回调, pay attention to the price - holding willingness of mining enterprises [74]. - In September, the domestic import of lithium concentrate was 521,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 38.0% and a month - on - month increase of 10.6%. From January to September, the domestic import of lithium concentrate was 4.37 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%. The supply pressure of high - cost hard - rock mines has begun to ease recently, and the lithium ore imported is expected to increase significantly [77].
需求预期乐观：碳酸锂月报-20251107
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-11-07 14:28