聚烯烃估值低位，等待原油反弹驱动：聚烯烃月报-20251107

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in Q1 2026, potentially marking the bottom of crude oil prices. Polyolefin overall profit has declined, and the high inventory in the upstream and midstream has started to decrease. The main contradiction in the polyolefin fundamentals lies in the low valuation. Once the cost - end crude oil begins to rebound, polyolefins may rise significantly. [16][17] - The recommended strategy is to go long on the LL - PP spread at low prices. [18] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Valuation: OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in Q1 2026, potentially indicating the bottom of crude oil prices. [16] - Cost - end: WTI crude oil dropped by 3.45%, Brent crude oil by 2.95%, coal price remained unchanged (0.00%), methanol by 6.73%, ethylene by 8.75%, propylene by 10.23%, and propane remained unchanged (0.00%). The low - level rebound of oil prices has a significant impact on the cost - end under the background of weak supply and demand. [16] - Supply - end: PE capacity utilization was 83.3%, down 0.76% month - on - month, up 4.75% year - on - year, and down 5.42% compared to the 5 - year average. PP capacity utilization was 78.55%, up 1.76% month - on - month, up 5.46% year - on - year, and down 5.87% compared to the 5 - year average. There was a divergence in the supply - end of the polyolefin 2601 contract. PE had only 400,000 tons of planned capacity, while PP faced greater pressure with 1.45 million tons of planned capacity. [16] - Import and Export: In September, domestic PE imports were 1.0222 million tons, up 7.58% month - on - month and down 10.04% year - on - year. PP imports were 177,400 tons, down 6.18% month - on - month and year - on - year. The export season for both PE and PP arrived. In September, PE exports were 99,200 tons, down 14.48% month - on - month and up 63.54% year - on - year. PP exports were 208,200 tons, down 16.82% month - on - month and up 21.14% year - on - year. [16] - Demand - end: PE downstream operating rate was 45%, up 1.44% month - on - month and down 0.09% year - on - year. PP downstream operating rate was 52.61%, up 1.74% month - on - month and up 1.23% year - on - year. During the seasonal peak season, the overall operating rate reached the same level as previous years, but the demand for PE agricultural film raw materials was strong. [17] - Inventory: PE production enterprise inventory was 490,200 tons, with a month - on - month inventory increase of 0.33% and a year - on - year increase of 20.44%. PE trader inventory was 50,100 tons, with a month - on - month inventory decrease of 7.28% and a year - on - year increase of 0.58%. PP production enterprise inventory was 599,900 tons, with a month - on - month inventory decrease of 11.96% and a year - on - year increase of 12.11%. PP trader inventory was 228,600 tons, with a month - on - month inventory decrease of 12.45% and a year - on - year increase of 87.68%. PP port inventory was 64,600 tons, with a month - on - month inventory decrease of 5.97% and a year - on - year increase of 5.04%. [17] - Next - month Forecast: The reference trading range for polyethylene (L2601) is 6,600 - 6,900, and for polypropylene (PP2601) is 6,300 - 6,600. [17] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Multiple charts are presented to show the term structure, price, basis, spread, trading volume, open interest, and registered warehouse receipts of LLDPE and PP contracts from 2021 - 2025, as well as the spreads between different varieties such as LL - PP, PP - 1.2PG, etc. [34][49] 3.3 Cost - end - The cost - end shows that crude oil prices are bottom - oscillating. Multiple cost - related price charts are provided, including WTI crude oil,动力煤, methanol, propane, etc., as well as relevant data on LPG such as domestic LPG supply, production, import, inventory, and production margins of related devices. [85][94] 3.4 Polyethylene Supply - end - The production raw material proportion of PE includes oil - based, coal - based, methanol - based, and light - hydrocarbon - based PE. In 2025, there were multiple PE production projects put into operation, with a total of 463,000 tons of projects already in operation and 40,000 tons yet to be put into operation. The charts show PE capacity, capacity utilization, and maintenance loss volume. [131][137] 3.5 Polyethylene Inventory & Import and Export - Charts display the total inventory, production enterprise inventory, two - oil inventory, trader inventory, import volume, and export volume of PE from 2021 - 2025. [146][156] 3.6 Polyethylene Demand - end - The downstream demand for polyethylene is mainly concentrated in packaging film, hollow products, pipes, injection molding, agricultural film, etc. Charts show the downstream demand proportion, CPI changes, downstream operating rates of different products, etc. [163][168]