南华期货铁矿石周报：宏观和基本面双重打击-20251107

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Short - term macro - driving forces have weakened, steel mill profits are fragile, and production cuts are insufficient, especially the high supply - demand contradiction in the plate segment, which exerts pressure on iron ore demand. With supply remaining high, continuous port inventory accumulation, and the squeeze from the coking coal end, it is expected that the overall iron ore price will continue to show a weak - running trend [3][4][7]. - There are some positive factors, such as the rising basis and the long - term loose overseas monetary and fiscal policies. However, the negative factors dominate the current market situation [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - Macro - level: The PMI of both China and the US in October showed a month - on - month decline, indicating fluctuations in the global trade environment and a marginal slowdown in internal demand. Short - term market driving forces are on hold due to factors like Powell's hawkish stance and the risk of a US government shutdown, and risk appetite has declined [4]. - Supply and inventory: Port inventory has continued to accumulate to 15,624 tons, a month - on - month increase of 351 tons. The shipment volume remains at a high level, while the molten iron output is gradually decreasing, putting pressure on prices. The current high - price level encourages mainstream mines to maintain strong shipment willingness, and the port inventory accumulation pattern may continue [4][6]. - Demand side: The daily average molten iron output has decreased by 20,000 tons to 2.34 million tons. Some high - cost and severely loss - making steel mills have implemented marginal production cuts, and steel mill profits have slightly recovered but are still fragile. Further production cuts are needed to ease industrial chain contradictions [6]. - Valuation level: Coking coal remains strong, with a tight supply and low - inventory structure. The price difference between coking coal and iron ore in the 01 contract has continued to widen, squeezing steel mill profits and suppressing iron ore prices [7]. 3.1.2 Trading - type Strategy Recommendations Perform range - bound operations on the Iron Ore 2601 contract, with the range being [760, 810] [7]. 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations Provide risk management strategy recommendations for iron ore in November, including different scenarios, risk exposures, strategy recommendations, hedging tools, trading directions, hedging ratios, and recommended entry intervals [8]. 3.1.4 Core Data - Black产业链成本利润表: Data such as molten iron cost, blast furnace hot - rolled coil profit, blast furnace rebar profit, etc., show weekly and monthly changes [9]. - Iron ore weekly shipment data: Global, Australian, Brazilian, and other regions' shipment volumes show different degrees of changes [10][11]. - Iron ore demand weekly data: Indicators such as daily average port clearance volume, daily average molten iron output, blast furnace operating rate, etc., have corresponding changes [12]. - Iron ore inventory weekly data: Port inventory, trade ore proportion, and steel mill inventory data show changes in inventory status [13]. 3.2 Supply 3.2.1 Global Shipment Analysis Analyze the seasonality, year - on - year changes, and over - seasonality of global iron ore shipments through various charts [14][15][16]. 3.2.2 Four Major Mines Shipment Analysis Analyze the seasonality, year - on - year changes, and over - seasonality of shipments from the four major iron ore mines [17][18][19]. 3.2.3 Non - mainstream Ore Shipment Analysis Examine the seasonality, year - on - year changes, and over - seasonality of non - mainstream ore shipments, and note that the Platts iron ore index leads non - mainstream shipments by about 5 weeks [23][24][26]. 3.2.4 Arrival and Berthing Analysis Analyze the seasonality and year - on - year changes of the arrival volume at 47 ports, the number of ships in port, berthing days, and actual arrival volume [29][30][31]. 3.2.5 Capsize Shipping Analysis Examine the seasonality of freight prices for capsize ships on different routes, the proportion of iron ore freight, ship speed, and global weekly floating inventory [34][35][40]. 3.2.6 Domestic Ore Supply Analysis Analyze the seasonality and year - on - year changes of the daily average output of iron concentrate powder from domestic mines [41][42][45]. 3.3 Demand Analysis 3.3.1 Molten Iron Analysis Analyze the seasonality, over - seasonality, and year - on - year changes of the daily average molten iron output of 247 steel enterprises, and make predictions on blast furnace maintenance [46][47][49]. 3.3.2 Steel Mill Profit Analysis Analyze the relationship between molten iron output and iron ore prices, and the seasonality of various steel product profits and their leading effects on production [50][52][53]. 3.3.3 Downstream Steel Analysis - Rebar: Analyze the production, consumption, inventory, and cost of rebar [65][66][67]. - Hot - rolled coil: Examine the production, consumption, inventory, and price difference of hot - rolled coils [72][73][74]. - Medium - thick plate: Analyze the production, consumption, inventory, and inventory - to - sales ratio of medium - thick plates [75][77][78]. - Other steel products: Analyze the production, inventory, and apparent demand of various other steel products such as H - beams, angle steels, galvanized coils, etc. [81][82][85]. 3.3.4 Export Analysis Analyze the monthly export volume of steel products, port departure volume, export orders, and export profits [100][101][103]. 3.4 Inventory Analysis 3.4.1 Port Inventory Analysis Analyze the seasonality, structure, and over - seasonality of iron ore port inventory, as well as the relationship between inventory and prices [104][105][106]. 3.4.2 Other Inventory Analysis Examine the seasonality of trade ore inventory, steel mill inventory, and inventory turnover days [121][122][127]. 3.5 Valuation Analysis 3.5.1 Basis and Term Structure - Provide the iron ore warehouse receipt price table, showing the basis and delivery profit of different iron ore varieties [128]. - Analyze the seasonality of the basis of different iron ore contracts [129][130]. 3.5.2 Rebar - Iron Ore Ratio and Hot - rolled Coil - Iron Ore Ratio Analyze the seasonality of the rebar - iron ore ratio and hot - rolled coil - iron ore ratio of different contracts [131][132][135]. 3.5.3 Coking Coal Ratio Analysis Analyze the seasonality of the price difference between coking coal and iron ore of different contracts and the cost - sharing relationship between coking coal and iron ore [138][139][144]. 3.5.4 Scrap Steel Cost - effectiveness Analysis Analyze the iron - scrap price difference, scrap steel cost - effectiveness, and the relationship between scrap steel consumption ratio and iron - scrap price difference [145][146][147].