化工日报-20251107

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Propylene, Plastic, Benzene, Styrene, PTA, Short Fiber, Methanol, PVC: ★☆☆, indicating a bias towards long/short, with a driving force for upward/downward trends, but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - PX, Ethylene Glycol, Urea, Caustic Soda, Soda Ash, Glass: ☆☆☆, suggesting that the short - term long/short trends are in a relatively balanced state, with poor operability on the current trading floor, and it is advisable to wait and see [1] Core Viewpoints - The chemical market is generally under pressure, with many products facing issues such as supply - demand imbalances, high inventories, and weakening demand. Most products are recommended for reverse arbitrage strategies, and attention should be paid to factors such as load changes in each link of the industrial chain, supply - side contractions, and demand - side improvements [2][3][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene: The main futures contract weakened narrowly during the day. International oil price declines affected market sentiment, and demand was difficult to boost significantly due to production enterprises' price concessions and some downstream device load - reduction or shutdown [2] - Plastic and Polypropylene: Their main futures contracts were weakly sorted during the day. For polyethylene, the ex - factory prices of petrochemical enterprises were basically stable, but downstream purchasing was cautious. For polypropylene, the e - commerce festival stocking was nearing the end, demand was lower than expected, and new device output was expected to increase supply pressure [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure Benzene: The futures price fluctuated narrowly, and the spot price in East China rose slightly. Port inventories increased, and production increased. There are short - term consolidations and medium - term negatives, and attention should be paid to the port inventory accumulation rhythm [3] - Styrene: The main futures contract was sorted narrowly. The cost - side support was insufficient, and the supply - demand was in a tight balance. The inventory was still relatively high, and the price continued to be weak [3] Polyester - PTA: PX supply increased, PTA load decreased, and polyester load increased slightly. There is a possibility of inventory accumulation in the future, and reverse arbitrage is recommended, with attention to load changes in each link of the industrial chain [5] - Ethylene Glycol: The weekly output increased slightly, and port inventories increased significantly. Supply is expected to increase, and there is a continued inventory accumulation expectation, with reverse arbitrage as the main strategy [5] - Short Fiber: There is no new investment pressure, and the spot pattern is good, but raw material price increases squeeze profits slightly. The absolute price fluctuates with raw materials after mid - November [5] - Bottle Chip: Demand weakens with the cooling weather, the processing margin is under pressure, and the long - term problem is over - capacity [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol: The futures price remained in a low - level shock. Iran's gas restriction time was unexpected, and port inventories were high, with a continued inventory accumulation trend expected. Downstream demand is expected to enter the off - season [6] - Urea: The futures price rose significantly due to the news of new export quotas. Autumn fertilizer demand is coming to an end, and production enterprises' inventory accumulation is small. Attention should be paid to the implementation details of the export policy [6] Chlor - Alkali - PVC: Supply pressure continued, and inventory accumulation continued. Demand declined due to weather, and exports were affected. It may operate at a low level [7] - Caustic Soda: It oscillated at a low level. Liquid caustic soda inventory decreased this week, but downstream demand was average, and it is running weakly [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda Ash: It rose narrowly. Supply was high, and inventories remained high. Attention should be paid to the upward trend of light soda ash and downstream restocking willingness [8] - Glass: It was weakly sorted during the day. After the production suspension in Shahe, dealers' purchasing enthusiasm increased, and inventory decreased. Cost increased, and the decline space is expected to be limited [8]