铝月报：供应边际扰动，铝价震荡上行-20251107

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report In October, aluminum prices strengthened both domestically and internationally, with SHFE aluminum rising 2.01% and LME aluminum rising 7.56% and hitting a new high for the year. Fundamentally, concerns about supply have been triggered by the shutdown or production cuts of overseas aluminum plants, and domestic inventories remain relatively low. Against the backdrop of the expected easing of the global trade situation and the implementation of the Fed's interest rate cut, supply - side disturbances and the improvement of domestic export expectations may drive aluminum prices higher. Meanwhile, attention should be paid to the support of domestic inventory changes for prices. The operating range of the SHFE aluminum main contract is expected to be between 20,800 - 22,500 yuan/ton, and the LME 3M aluminum is expected to be between 2,750 - 3,000 US dollars/ton [11][12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Supply: As of the end of October, China's electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was about 44.06 million tons, with the industry's monthly operating rate remaining stable. In October, the domestic electrolytic aluminum output increased by 3.5% month - on - month, and the overseas output was 2.59 million tons, up 3.6% month - on - month. The domestic molten aluminum ratio rebounded by 1.4% month - on - month [11][12]. - Inventory & Spot: At the end of October, the spot inventory of aluminum ingots was 605,000 tons, up 18,000 tons month - on - month; the bonded area inventory was 68,000 tons, down 19,000 tons month - on - month; the total inventory of aluminum rods was 153,000 tons, up 29,000 tons month - on - month; the LME global aluminum inventory was 554,000 tons, up 43,000 tons month - on - month, at a low level in the same period of previous years. The spot discount of domestic East China aluminum ingots to futures was 15 yuan/ton, and the LME market Cash/3M discount was 4.6 US dollars/ton [11][12]. - Imports and Exports: In September 2025, China's primary aluminum imports were 247,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 13.5% and a year - on - year increase of 80.0%. In October, China exported 503,000 tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products; the cumulative exports from January to October were 5.02 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.6%. As the domestic import loss widens, the export expectation of aluminum products is expected to improve significantly [11][12]. - Demand: In October, the overall downstream demand for aluminum in China was stable with a slight decline, showing a differentiated trend. The operating rate of domestic leading aluminum downstream processing enterprises gradually decreased from 62.5% at the beginning of the month to 62.2% at the end of the month, generally remaining at a relatively high level. From the middle to the end of the month, the industry transitioned from the peak season to the off - season, and the continuous rise in aluminum prices restricted downstream demand growth. It is expected that the subsequent operating rate will decline slowly or fluctuate within a narrow range [11][12]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Futures: In October, SHFE aluminum fluctuated strongly, rising 2.01% for the month, and LME aluminum rose 7.56%. As of November 7, SHFE aluminum reached a maximum of over 21,700 yuan/ton [20]. - Term Spread: In October, the spread between the first and third contracts of SHFE aluminum changed from a premium to a discount [25]. - Spot Basis: In October, the spot prices in South China and Central China were at a discount to futures for most of the time, while the price in East China changed from a premium to a discount in the middle of the month [28]. - Regional Premium and Discount Spread: In October, the spot price in East China strengthened relatively [31]. - LME Premium and Discount: In October, the LME aluminum Cash/3M premium and discount first rose and then fell [35]. 3.3 Profit and Inventory - Profit: In October, the smelting profit of primary aluminum increased by 11.4% month - on - month compared with September, reaching a historical high [40]. - Inventory: - Electrolytic Aluminum: At the end of October, the spot inventory of aluminum ingots was 605,000 tons, up 18,000 tons month - on - month, and the inventory continued to fluctuate in early November. The bonded area inventory was 68,000 tons, down 19,000 tons month - on - month [46]. - Aluminum Rods: At the end of October, the total inventory of aluminum rods was 153,000 tons, up 29,000 tons month - on - month [51]. - LME Inventory: In September, the proportion of aluminum from India in the LME aluminum ingot inventory decreased [61]. 3.4 Cost Side - Bauxite: In October, the prices of domestic and overseas bauxite remained stable [68]. - Alumina: In October, the domestic alumina price decreased by 103 yuan/ton month - on - month, and the import price decreased by 5 US dollars/ton [71]. - Electrolytic Aluminum Smelting Cost: In October, the price of anodes in the South increased by 70 yuan/ton compared with September, and the price of thermal coal increased by 70 yuan/ton month - on - month [75]. 3.5 Supply Side - Alumina: In October, the monthly output of alumina was 7.785 million tons, an increase of 39,000 tons compared with September and a year - on - year increase of 6.8% [81]. - Electrolytic Aluminum: As of the end of October, the domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was about 44.06 million tons, with the industry's monthly operating rate remaining stable. In October, the domestic electrolytic aluminum output increased by 3.5% month - on - month, and the overseas output was 2.59 million tons, up 3.6% month - on - month [84]. - Molten Aluminum Ratio: In October, the processing fee of aluminum rods decreased month - on - month. The domestic molten aluminum ratio rebounded by 1.4% month - on - month, and it is expected to decline slightly in November [87]. - Provincial Output of Electrolytic Aluminum: In October, the electrolytic aluminum output of each province increased compared with September [92]. 3.6 Demand Side - Downstream Production: In September, China's aluminum product output was 5.9 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.5%; the cumulative output from January to September was 49.767 million tons, basically the same as the previous year. As of November 3, the daily delivery volume of aluminum ingots was 127,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease [96]. - Downstream Operating Rate: In September, the operating rate of aluminum profiles decreased month - on - month, while the operating rate of aluminum sheets, strips, and foils increased. The operating rates of primary aluminum alloy ingots and aluminum rods increased month - on - month, and the operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy ingots also increased. In October, the price difference between aluminum ingots and aluminum alloys widened by 203 yuan/ton month - on - month [103][106][109]. - Terminal Demand: The production schedules of the three major white goods in November 2025 showed a decline. The current real - estate data was weak, automobile production and sales were acceptable, and the production schedule of photovoltaic modules decreased slightly [113]. 3.7 Imports and Exports - Primary Aluminum: In September 2025, China's primary aluminum imports were 247,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 13.5% and a year - on - year increase of 80.0%. In October, the spot import loss of aluminum ingots widened. In October, China exported 503,000 tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products; the cumulative exports from January to October were 5.02 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.6% [118][125]. - Recycled Aluminum: In September 2025, the imports of recycled aluminum were 155,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 17,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 17.7%. The imports from January to September were 1.501 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.9% [125]. - Bauxite: In September 2025, China's bauxite imports were 15.881 million tons, with imported ore accounting for 74.2%. The cumulative bauxite imports from January to September were 157.305 million tons [129]. - Alumina: In September 2025, China exported 246,000 tons of alumina, a month - on - month increase of 36.7% and a year - on - year increase of 82.2%. The cumulative alumina exports from January to September were 1.999 million tons [129].