尿素月报：出口消息提振，盘面触底反弹-20251107

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In October, after a sharp decline on the first day of the National Day holiday, urea prices bottomed out and rebounded. The overall supply - demand of urea was weak, with high enterprise inventories, but the low absolute price limited the downside space. The market was slowly building a bottom waiting for more positive factors. The release of more export quota news stimulated the market, and the price rebounded from the low level. Currently, the fundamental driving force is still lacking, and the overall industrial demand is weak. The follow - up demand mainly focuses on compound fertilizers and off - season storage. Overall, the supply - demand pattern is still relatively loose, and there is limited upward momentum, but the downside space is also limited at the current low price level. It is recommended to wait and see or look for long - position opportunities on dips [12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Market Summary: In October, urea prices bottomed out after a decline. The domestic agricultural demand was in the off - season, compound fertilizer production declined seasonally, and industrial demand was weak. The overall supply - demand was weak, with high enterprise inventories, but the low price limited the downside. The supply in October was 5.87 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 130,000 tons and a slight year - on - year decline. The latest enterprise operating rate was 82.71%, with room for short - term improvement. The market was boosted by the news of more export quotas. The fixed - bed profit reached a new low, the basis and inter - month spread were in weak oscillations, the export profit was high, and the domestic market was relatively undervalued. The enterprise inventory was 1.5781 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 23,800 tons and still at a high level year - on - year. The port inventory was 79,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 31,000 tons [12]. - Strategy: Wait and see or look for long - position opportunities on dips [12]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Price Changes: In the futures market, the 09 contract price decreased from 1742 to 1736, a decrease of 6; the 01 contract price decreased from 1670 to 1625, a decrease of 45; the 05 contract price decreased from 1717 to 1703, a decrease of 14. In the spot market, the prices in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei all decreased, and the basis in these regions increased. The prices of downstream products such as compound fertilizers and melamine also changed to varying degrees, and the international prices of urea generally showed a downward trend [13]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume and open interest of the urea futures market showed an increase in positions and rising prices [28]. 3.3 Profit and Inventory - Profit: The production profit of urea was at a low level, especially the fixed - bed profit, which reached a new low [12][32]. - Inventory: The enterprise inventory was 1.5781 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 23,800 tons and still at a high level year - on - year. The port inventory was 79,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 31,000 tons [12]. 3.4 Supply Side - Capacity: There were a number of planned urea production facilities to be put into operation in 2024 - 2025, with a total planned production capacity of several million tons [45]. - Operating Rate: The latest enterprise operating rate was 82.71%, with room for short - term improvement. The operating rates of gas - based and coal - based processes both increased [12]. - Maintenance: Many enterprises carried out maintenance in 2025, including routine maintenance, fault - based maintenance, and policy - based maintenance, resulting in a certain amount of production loss [49]. 3.5 Demand Side - Consumption: The consumption of urea showed seasonal fluctuations. The downstream demand mainly included compound fertilizers, melamine, etc. The compound fertilizer production profit was positive, and the melamine operating rate was at a low level year - on - year [55][70]. - Export: The export profit of urea was at a high level. The market was boosted by the news of more export quotas, and the follow - up demand needed to pay attention to export policies and off - season storage [12]. 3.6 Option - related - The document shows the changes in the open interest, trading volume, open interest PCR, trading volume PCR, and volatility of urea options [100][102][109]. 3.7 Industrial Structure Diagram - The document presents the urea industrial chain, research framework analysis mind - map, and industrial chain characteristics, and also provides an overview of the seasonal demand for chemical fertilizers in different regions at home and abroad [112][114][116].