Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - In October, steel mill production schedules increased slightly month-on-month, but post-festival demand contracted. With the continuous increase in resource arrivals, the contradiction in the supply-demand structure became increasingly prominent. The 300-series stainless steel production line has not planned large-scale maintenance, and the supply pressure persists, suppressing prices. Terminal demand release fell short of expectations, and market trading activity remained sluggish. Downstream purchases were mainly driven by rigid demand, with strong resistance to high-priced resources. Market transactions were concentrated in the low-price range, further restricting price upside potential. With the continuous accumulation of inventory pressure, traders' willingness to support prices weakened significantly, and most adopted price-cutting strategies to promote sales and accelerate turnover to relieve capital occupation pressure. In the short term, the core driving factor for the market will focus on the price adjustment policies of leading steel mills, but in the medium term, the imbalance between supply and demand will remain difficult to change [11][12] Summary by Directory Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Monthly Key Points Summary: On November 7, the average price of cold-rolled stainless steel coils in Wuxi was 12,800 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 1.16%; the ex-factory price of 7%-10% ferronickel in Shandong was 920 yuan/nickel, a month-on-month decrease of 1.08%; the average price of scrap stainless steel was 8,600 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 1.15%. The closing price of the stainless steel main contract on Friday afternoon was 12,590 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 1.06%. The Foshan Delong market quotation was about -90 yuan (+40) higher than the main contract; the Wuxi Hongwang market quotation was about 10 yuan (+30) higher than the main contract. The disk position was 190,304 lots, a month-on-month increase of 10.75%. In October, domestic cold-rolled stainless steel production was scheduled to be 1.4714 million tons. In September, the crude steel output was 3.0661 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 163,300 tons, and the cumulative year-on-year increase from January to September was 6.48%. According to MYSTEEL sample statistics, the estimated crude steel output of the 300-series stainless steel in September was 1.4834 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 3.47%; the cold-rolled output of the 300-series in September was 0 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 100.00%. From January to September 2024, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing in China was 658.3479 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 5.50%; in September, the single-month sales area of commercial housing was 85.3087 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 11.89%. In September, the year-on-year changes in the output of refrigerators, household freezers, washing machines, and air conditioners were -7%, -2%, -3%, and 5.6% respectively; the cumulative year-on-year increase in the fuel processing industry in September was 20.7%. Last week, the total social inventory of stainless steel was 1.034 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 0.29%; the inventory of futures warehouse receipts last week was 74,200 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 15,537 tons. Last week, the social inventories of the 200/300/400-series stainless steel were 191,400 tons, 639,500 tons, and 203,100 tons respectively, among which the inventory of the 300-series decreased by 1.90% month-on-month; last week, the floating volume of stainless steel was 68,800 tons, a month-on-month increase of 26.69%, and the unloading volume was 90,500 tons, a month-on-month increase of 37.92%. Last week, the ex-factory price of 7%-10% ferronickel in Shandong was 925 yuan/nickel, a month-on-month decrease of 10 yuan/nickel, and the iron mills in Fujian were currently losing 104 yuan/nickel [11] - Fundamental Assessment: The 10-month steel mill production schedules increased slightly month-on-month, but post-festival demand contracted. With the continuous increase in resource arrivals, the contradiction in the supply-demand structure became increasingly prominent. The 300-series stainless steel production line has not planned large-scale maintenance, and the supply pressure persists, suppressing prices. Terminal demand release fell short of expectations, and market trading activity remained sluggish. Downstream purchases were mainly driven by rigid demand, with strong resistance to high-priced resources. Market transactions were concentrated in the low-price range, further restricting price upside potential. With the continuous accumulation of inventory pressure, traders' willingness to support prices weakened significantly, and most adopted price-cutting strategies to promote sales and accelerate turnover to relieve capital occupation pressure. In the short term, the core driving factor for the market will focus on the price adjustment policies of leading steel mills, but in the medium term, the imbalance between supply and demand will remain difficult to change [12] Futures and Spot Market - On November 7, the average price of cold-rolled stainless steel coils in Wuxi was 12,800 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 1.16%; the ex-factory price of 7%-10% ferronickel in Shandong was 920 yuan/nickel, a month-on-month decrease of 1.08%; the average price of scrap stainless steel was 8,600 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 1.15%. The closing price of the stainless steel main contract on Friday afternoon was 12,590 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 1.06%. The Foshan Delong market quotation was about -90 yuan (+40) higher than the main contract; the Wuxi Hongwang market quotation was about 10 yuan (+30) higher than the main contract. The disk position was 190,304 lots, a month-on-month increase of 10.75%. The spread between consecutive contracts 1 and 2 was reported at -20 (+20), and the spread between consecutive contracts 1 and 3 was reported at -50 (+15) [11][16][19][22] Supply Side - In October, domestic cold-rolled stainless steel production was scheduled to be 1.4714 million tons. In September, the crude steel output was 3.0661 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 163,300 tons, and the cumulative year-on-year increase from January to September was 6.48%. In September, the stainless steel net export volume was 298,200 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 9.83% and a year-on-year decrease of 10.42%; from January to September, the cumulative net export volume was 1.0809 million tons, a 65.78% increase compared to the same period last year. It is estimated that the monthly output of stainless steel in Indonesia in September was 430,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 7.50%; in September, China's imports of stainless steel from Indonesia reached 95,800 tons, a month-on-month increase of 0.49% [11][26][29][32] Demand Side - From January to September 2024, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing in China was 658.3479 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 5.50%; in September, the single-month sales area of commercial housing was 85.3087 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 11.89%. In September, the year-on-year changes in the output of refrigerators, household freezers, washing machines, and air conditioners were -7%, -2%, -3%, and 5.6% respectively; the cumulative year-on-year increase in the fuel processing industry in September was 20.7%. In September, the output of elevators, escalators, and lifts was 135,000 units, a month-on-month increase of 13.45% and a year-on-year increase of 1.50%; in September, the automobile sales volume was 3.2264 million units, a month-on-month increase of 12.94% and a year-on-year increase of 14.86% [11][39][42][45] Inventory - Last week, the total social inventory of stainless steel was 1.034 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 0.29%; the inventory of futures warehouse receipts last week was 74,200 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 15,537 tons. Last week, the social inventories of the 200/300/400-series stainless steel were 191,400 tons, 639,500 tons, and 203,100 tons respectively, among which the inventory of the 300-series decreased by 1.90% month-on-month; last week, the floating volume of stainless steel was 68,800 tons, a month-on-month increase of 26.69%, and the unloading volume was 90,500 tons, a month-on-month increase of 37.92% [11][49][52] Cost Side - In September, the nickel ore import volume was 6.1145 million wet tons, a month-on-month decrease of 3.51% and a year-on-year increase of 34.43%; currently, the nickel ore quotation for Ni:1.5% nickel ore is 56.0 US dollars/wet ton, and the port inventory is 14.791 million wet tons, a month-on-month decrease of 1.26%. Last week, the ex-factory price of 7%-10% ferronickel in Shandong was 925 yuan/nickel, a month-on-month decrease of 10 yuan/nickel, and the iron mills in Fujian were currently losing 104 yuan/nickel. Last week, the chromium ore quotation was 55 yuan/dry ton, a month-on-month increase of 0 yuan/dry ton; the high-carbon ferrochrome quotation was 8,200 yuan/50 base tons, a month-on-month decrease of 100 yuan/50 base tons. In terms of output, the high-carbon ferrochrome output in October was 825,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 1.54%. The current gross profit of the self-produced high-nickel ferronickel production line is -828 yuan/ton, and the profit margin reaches -6.08% [56][59][62][65]
不锈钢月报：库存压力偏大，低价资源拉动价格下行-20251107
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-11-07 14:36