铁矿石月报：宏观落地，价格偏弱运行-20251107

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report Looking ahead to November, on the supply side, overseas shipments in October continued to be strong, with a significant increase in arrivals. Shipments are expected to decline month-on-month in November. On the demand side, since late October, affected by environmental protection restrictions in Hebei and a sharp decline in steel mill profits, the daily average pig iron output has fallen below 2.4 million tons. Currently, the profitability rate of steel mills has dropped to the lowest level of the year, and the terminal data is weak. It is expected that the pig iron output in November will continue to decline compared to October, and the supply and demand of iron ore are expected to weaken. In terms of inventory, the accumulation of port inventory has intensified, and inventory pressure is still expected in November. Macroscopically, the Fourth Plenary Session was held in late October, and progress was made in the China-US economic and trade consultations at the end of the month, with a meeting between the two heads of state, giving certain positive signals. During this period, the iron ore price rebounded periodically. After the macro enters a short-term vacuum period, it is expected that the futures market logic will return to the industrial reality, and the iron ore price will face downward pressure [13][14]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Supply: In October, the weekly average of global iron ore shipments was 32.8444 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 20,700 tons. The weekly average of Australian shipments to China via 19 ports was 15.8964 million tons, a decrease of 194,600 tons from the previous month. The weekly average of Brazilian shipments was 8.486 million tons, an increase of 955,000 tons from the previous month. The weekly average of arrivals at 45 ports was 26.8428 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 2.2283 million tons [13]. - Demand: The estimated daily average domestic pig iron output in October was 2.3989 million tons, a decrease of 2,800 tons from the previous month [13]. - Inventory: At the end of October, the inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports nationwide was 145.4248 million tons, an increase of 5.6469 million tons from the end of the previous month. The weekly average of the daily ore removal volume at 45 ports was 3.1888 million tons, a decrease of 122,800 tons from the previous month. The weekly average of the daily consumption of imported iron ore by steel mills was 2.9667 million tons, an increase of 316,000 tons from the previous month [13]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Price Difference: At the end of October, the price difference between PB and Super Special powder was 93 yuan/ton, a month-on-month increase of 22 yuan/ton. The price difference between Carajás and PB powder was 110 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 29 yuan/ton. The price difference between Carajás and Jinbuba powder was 169 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 16 yuan/ton. The price difference between (Carajás + Super Special powder)/2 and PB powder was 8.5 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 25.5 yuan/ton [19][22]. - Feed Ratio and Scrap Steel: At the end of October, the pelletizing feed ratio was 14.92%, a decrease of 0.24 percentage points from the end of the previous month. The lump ore feed ratio was 12.3%, an increase of 0.24 percentage points from the end of the previous month. The sinter feed ratio was 72.78%, with no change from the end of the previous month. The price of scrap steel in Tangshan was 2,225 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton from the end of the previous month. The price of scrap steel in Zhangjiagang was 2,170 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton from the end of the previous month [25]. - Profit: At the end of October, the profitability rate of steel mills was 45.02%, a decrease of 12.99 percentage points from the end of the previous month [28]. 3.3 Inventory - Port Inventory: At the end of October, the inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports nationwide was 145.4248 million tons, an increase of 5.6469 million tons from the end of the previous month. The pellet inventory was 2.8692 million tons, an increase of 82,700 tons from the end of the previous month. The iron concentrate powder inventory was 11.5383 million tons, an increase of 707,700 tons from the end of the previous month. The lump ore inventory was 18.623 million tons, an increase of 1.4017 million tons from the end of the previous month. The Australian ore port inventory was 60.174 million tons, a change of 1.0121 million tons from the end of the previous month. The Brazilian ore port inventory was 57.4387 million tons, an increase of 3.8935 million tons from the end of the previous month [35][38][41]. - Steel Mill Inventory: At the end of October, the inventory of imported iron ore by 247 steel mills was 88.4986 million tons, a decrease of 8.8653 million tons from the end of the previous month [45]. 3.4 Supply Side - Overseas Shipments: In October, the weekly average of Australian shipments to China via 19 ports was 15.8964 million tons, a decrease of 194,600 tons from the previous month. The weekly average of Brazilian shipments was 8.486 million tons, an increase of 955,000 tons from the previous month. The weekly average of Rio Tinto's shipments was 6.8054 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 58,400 tons. The weekly average of BHP's shipments was 5.6104 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 169,600 tons. The weekly average of Vale's shipments was 6.2686 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 870,100 tons. The weekly average of FMG's shipments was 3.8316 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 306,900 tons [50][53][56]. - Arrivals and Imports: In October, the weekly average of arrivals at 45 ports was 26.8428 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 2.2283 million tons. In September, China's non-Australian and non-Brazilian iron ore imports were 18.5836 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 1.6846 million tons [59]. - Domestic Mines: At the end of October, the capacity utilization rate of domestic mines was 60.96%, a decrease of 0.31 percentage points from the end of the previous month. The daily average output of iron concentrate powder from domestic mines was 476,400 tons, a decrease of 21,000 tons from the end of the previous month [62]. 3.5 Demand Side - Pig Iron Output and Blast Furnace Utilization: The estimated domestic pig iron output in October was 74.3668 million tons, with a daily average of 2.3989 million tons, a decrease of 2,800 tons from the previous month. At the end of October, the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 88.61%, a decrease of 2.25 percentage points from the end of the previous month [67]. - Ore Removal and Consumption: In October, the weekly average of the daily ore removal volume at 45 ports was 3.1888 million tons, a decrease of 122,800 tons from the previous month. The weekly average of the daily consumption of imported iron ore by 247 steel mills was 2.9667 million tons, an increase of 316,000 tons from the previous month [70]. 3.6 Basis As of October 31, the estimated basis of the iron ore BRBF main contract was 67.35 yuan/ton, with a basis rate of 7.83% [75].