南华期货沥青风险管理日报-20251107

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The market was affected by news such as the US increasing military threats against Venezuela and the suspension of reciprocal tariffs after the China - US leaders' meeting, causing short - term increases in crude oil and asphalt prices. Concerns about asphalt raw material supply emerged due to Venezuela's importance as an oil source for Chinese asphalt refineries. However, short - term Venezuelan crude oil shipments were not substantially affected according to Kpler data. Demand has entered the off - season, winter storage is unpromising, and some Shandong refineries have复产 expectations. The price is expected to move downward, and short - term traders should pay attention to the rhythm and take profits in time [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Asphalt Price and Volatility - The predicted monthly price range of the asphalt main contract is 3000 - 3450 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 16.06% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 20.68% [2]. 3.2. Asphalt Risk Management Strategy - Inventory Management: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about price drops, they can short asphalt futures (bu2512) with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 3650 - 3750 yuan/ton to lock in profits and cover production costs. They can also sell call options (bu2512C3500) with a 20% ratio at an entry range of 30 - 40 to reduce capital costs and lock in the spot selling price if prices rise [2]. - Procurement Management: For enterprises with low procurement inventory and aiming to purchase based on orders, they can buy asphalt futures (bu2512) with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 3300 - 3400 yuan/ton to lock in procurement costs. They can also sell put options (bu2512C3500) with a 20% ratio at an entry range of 25 - 35 to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs, and lock in the spot purchase price if prices fall [2]. 3.3. Price and Basis Information - Spot Prices: On November 7, 2025, the Shandong spot price was 3050 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan from the previous day and 180 yuan week - on - week), the Yangtze River Delta was 3390 yuan/ton (down 40 yuan and 80 yuan week - on - week), the North China was 3100 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan and 150 yuan week - on - week), and the South China was 3350 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan and 100 yuan week - on - week) [9]. - Basis: The Shandong spot 12 - contract basis was - 2 yuan/ton (down 16 yuan and 43 yuan week - on - week), the Yangtze River Delta was 338 yuan/ton (down 6 yuan and up 57 yuan week - on - week), the North China was 48 yuan/ton (down 16 yuan and 13 yuan week - on - week), and the South China was 298 yuan/ton (up 24 yuan and 37 yuan week - on - week) [9]. - Crack Spread: The Shandong spot crack spread against Brent was 75.7456 yuan/barrel (down 8.6645 yuan and 24.0369 yuan week - on - week), and the futures main contract crack spread against Brent was 75.3991 yuan/barrel (down 10.5705 yuan and 26.8094 yuan week - on - week) [9]. 3.4. Seasonal Data - The report also includes seasonal charts of asphalt 12 - contract basis in Shandong, North China, the Yangtze River Delta, and Northeast regions, asphalt futures month - spreads (03 - 06, 06 - 09, 09 - 12), domestic asphalt plant - warehouse total inventory rate, and asphalt warehouse and plant - warehouse receipt quantities [10][15][20].