Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The peanut market shows a weak and volatile trend. The trading volume of peanuts has increased. The price of general peanuts in Henan is stable, while the price in Shandong has decreased and that in the Northeast has increased. The price of imported peanuts is stable, but the import volume has significantly decreased. The operating rate of oil mills has risen, the spot price of peanut meal is stable, and the price of peanut oil is stable. The profit of oil mills from peanut pressing has increased. However, downstream consumption remains weak, the peanut inventory of oil mills has increased, and the inventory of peanut oil has continued to rise. The market expects the peanut production to be the same as or slightly higher than last year, but due to the impact of previous rainfall, the quality of peanuts has a relatively high rate of mildew, and oil mills have not yet carried out large - scale purchases. The price of Henan peanuts in the spot market is low, and the 01 peanut contract has oscillated and declined this week, with the 1 - 5 spread being weak [6]. - Options strategy: Consider selling the pk601 - P - 7600 option strategy [5]. - Trading strategy: Adopt a weak - bottom - oscillation mindset. Do not participate in the 01 peanut contract, and consider short - term long positions in the 05 peanut contract on dips. For the spread, conduct reverse arbitrage on the 1 - 5 spread when it is high [6]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - Options strategy: Try selling the pk601 - P - 7600 option strategy [5]. - Trading logic: The trading volume of peanuts has increased. The price of general peanuts in Henan is stable at around 3.5 yuan per catty, the price in Shandong has decreased, and that in the Northeast has increased, with peanuts in the Northeast generally around 4.1 yuan per catty. The price of imported peanuts is stable, with imported Sudan refined rice at 8600 yuan per ton and Senegalese oil - grade rice at 7800 yuan per ton, and the import volume has significantly decreased. The operating rate of oil mills has risen, the spot price of peanut meal is stable, the price of peanut oil is stable, and the profit of oil mills from peanut pressing has increased. Downstream consumption remains weak, the peanut inventory of oil mills has increased, and the inventory of peanut oil has continued to rise. The market expects the peanut production to be the same as or slightly higher than last year, but due to the impact of previous rainfall, the quality of peanuts has a relatively high rate of mildew, and oil mills have not yet carried out large - scale purchases. The price of Henan peanuts in the spot market is low, and the 01 peanut contract has oscillated and declined this week, with the 1 - 5 spread being weak [6]. - Strategy: The peanut market is in a weak and volatile state. Adopt a weak - bottom - oscillation mindset. Do not participate in the 01 peanut contract, and consider short - term long positions in the 05 peanut contract on dips [6]. - Spread strategy: Conduct reverse arbitrage on the 1 - 5 spread when it is high [6]. Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis Peanut Price - The purchase price of oil mills has been lowered, the price of imported peanuts is stable, and the price of general peanuts is weak. In the domestic market, the price of peanuts in Henan is stable, and that in the Northeast has increased. The price of large peanuts in Junan, Shandong is 3.7 yuan per catty, a decrease of 0.25 yuan per catty from last week; the price of new - season peanuts in Zhengyang, Henan is 3.5 yuan per catty, remaining stable from last week; the price of Baisha peanuts in Changtu, Liaoning is 4.1 yuan per catty, remaining stable from last week; the price of Baisha peanuts in Fuyu, Jilin is 4.3 yuan per catty, an increase of 0.1 yuan per catty from last week. The trading volume of general peanuts is average, and the overall price of peanuts in Henan is weak. The purchase price of oil - grade peanuts by oil mills is stable, and most oil mills have stopped purchasing. The basic purchase price of oil mills is between 7600 - 7800 yuan per ton, a decrease of 100 yuan per ton from last week. The price of imported peanuts is stable, with Sudan new rice at 8600 yuan per ton, Senegalese oil - grade rice at 7800 yuan per ton, and Indian 50/60 peanuts at 8000 yuan per ton [9][11]. Domestic Demand - The operating rate of oil mills has increased, and the peanut inventory has increased. As of November 6th, the operating rate of peanut oil mills this week is 16.21%, a month - on - month increase of 5.93%. The arrival volume of oil mills this week is 27,900 tons, an increase of 6,000 tons from last week. The peanut inventory of oil mills is 45,900 tons, an increase of 4,100 tons from last week. The inventory of peanut oil is 40,300 tons, an increase of 8,700 tons from last week [13][15]. Pressing Profit - The purchase price of peanuts by oil mills has been lowered, the price of peanut oil is stable, and the pressing profit has increased. The pressing profit of peanut oil mills is 266 yuan per ton, an increase of 19 yuan per ton from last week (according to Steel Union data). The average price of first - grade peanut oil is 14,500 yuan per ton, remaining stable from last week, and the price of small - pressed fragrant peanut oil is 16,500 yuan per ton, remaining stable from last week. Due to the strong spot price of soybean meal, the price difference between peanut meal and soybean meal is low, and the price of peanut meal is stable, at 3210 yuan per ton this week, remaining the same as last week [17][19]. Basis and Spread - The 1 - 4 spread of peanuts is weak and stable at around - 80 yuan this week due to the downward oscillation of the 01 peanut contract. The spot - futures price difference has declined. It is recommended to mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach [21][26]. Peanut Import - The import volume of peanuts has significantly decreased. In September, the import volume of peanut kernels was 34,000 tons, and the cumulative import volume from January to September was 164,000 tons, a 71% decrease compared to the same period last year. The export volume of peanut kernels in September was 10,000 tons, and the cumulative export volume from January to September was 115,000 tons, a 24% increase compared to the same period last year. The import volume of peanut oil in September was 36,000 tons, and the cumulative import volume of peanut oil from January to September was 291,000 tons, a 47% increase compared to the same period last year [28][30]. Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking - The report provides multiple data charts, including the price trends of peanuts (such as the spot price of general peanut kernels in western Shandong, the price difference between Henan and Shandong peanuts), the spread trends (such as the 1 - 4 spread of peanuts), the import and export volume trends of peanuts (cumulative import volume of Chinese peanuts, cumulative export volume of Chinese peanut kernels), the pressing profit trends (pressing profit of peanut oil mills, price difference between peanut meal and soybean meal), the downstream data (operating rate of pressing plants, peanut pressing volume of pressing plants, peanut oil inventory of oil mills), and the import price and volume trends of peanut oil (import price of peanut oil, monthly cumulative import volume of Chinese peanut oil) [34][40][42].
河南花生质量较差，盘面震荡下行
Yin He Qi Huo·2025-11-07 14:43