白糖周报：巴西制糖比下降，印度糖出口预期增-20251107

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Internationally, the sugar production in major global producing areas is increasing. Brazil's sugar production is at a historically high level, and India may export more sugar than expected, leading to a weak fundamental situation for raw sugar with a downward long - term trend [3]. - In the domestic market, short - term sugar production is expected to increase, and international sugar prices have dropped significantly. Although the supply and sales pressure is increasing, the tightening of syrup and premix imports and high previous pricing costs support the domestic sugar price. So, the Zhengzhou sugar price is expected to fluctuate in the short term. In the long run, it will be affected by the international market and is expected to be weak, but the downward space is relatively limited due to policy support [4]. Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies Core Logic - International sugar prices are weak due to high production in Brazil and potential high - volume exports from India. Domestic sugar prices are affected by both international factors and domestic policies, with short - term fluctuations and long - term weakness [3][4]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: International sugar prices have ended the rebound and resumed the downward trend. Domestic sugar prices are expected to fluctuate, so it is recommended to operate within the range, selling high and covering low [5]. - Arbitrage: Short US raw sugar and long domestic Zhengzhou sugar [5]. - Options: Sell out - of - the - money call options [5]. Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis International Supply - Demand Pattern Changes - In the 2025/26 sugar season, the global sugar supply - demand gap is significantly narrowing. ISO predicts a 23.1 - million - ton supply gap, while Czarnikow predicts a 740 - million - ton supply surplus [11]. Brazil - Sugar production is expected to remain high at 4502 million tons in the 2025/26 season, slightly higher than the previous estimate [12]. - In the first half of October 2025, the bi - weekly sugar - making ratio in the central - southern region decreased by 3 percentage points to 48.24%, and ethanol production showed a mixed trend [14]. - As of October 16, 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the central - southern region increased by 0.89% year - on - year, and the ethanol price center of gravity is expected to decline due to the gasoline price cut [23]. - As of the first half of October, the sugar inventory in the central - southern region increased by 18.2% year - on - year, and the export volume in October increased by 12.8% year - on - year [28]. Thailand - The new sugar season is expected to see a slight increase in production, and the export volume is expected to increase by 100 million tons [32]. India - The ISMA estimates the 2025/26 sugar season's total production at 3435 million tons, and the net production (excluding ethanol use) at 3095 million tons. India is capable of exporting nearly 200 million tons of sugar [41]. - As of July 2025, the 24/25 cumulative net export volume was 75.08 million tons. The November 2025 domestic sales quota decreased by 20 million tons year - on - year [41]. Domestic Market - Sugar mills in Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang have mostly started production. Rainfall may increase beet yield but reduce sugar content. Yunnan's sugar mills may start production in mid - November [42]. - Import profits are relatively high. For example, the in - quota profit from Brazil is 1750 yuan/ton, and the out - of - quota profit is over 600 yuan/ton [47]. - In September 2025, China imported 55 million tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 14.63 million tons. The import of syrup and premix decreased significantly. The predicted out - of - quota raw sugar arrival in October is 11.9 million tons [53]. Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking - Data on Brazil's central - southern region includes cumulative cane crushing volume, sugar production, bi - weekly sugar - making ratio, etc. [23][55]. - Data on India includes double - week cumulative sugar production, domestic sales quota, and export volume [41]. - Domestic data includes sugar production progress, import volume of sugar, syrup, and premix [42][53].