粕类周报：粕类周报贸易关系影响增加，粕类盘面大幅震荡-20251107

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The international soybean market has fully reflected the positive factors, and the subsequent upward momentum may be limited. However, there are also many uncertainties, and the downward space is expected to be limited if the overall market demand does not decline significantly [3]. - The domestic soybean meal futures market shows a volatile trend. The near - term contracts are relatively strong due to the loss of soybean crushing profit, the lack of competitiveness of US soybeans compared with Brazilian soybeans, and the tight supply in the long - term domestic market. The current domestic spot market has a relatively loose supply - demand situation, with high inventory and general trading volume [3]. - The domestic rapeseed meal futures market shows a relatively strong trend, mainly affected by the uncertainty of Canadian rapeseed supply. However, the high inventory of granular rapeseed meal limits the price increase space [4]. - For trading strategies, it is recommended to take a bearish view on the long - term contracts for unilateral trading, expand the MRM spread for arbitrage, and adopt the strategy of selling wide straddles for options [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies 3.1.1 Comprehensive Analysis - The US soybean market shows a high - level volatile trend. The improvement of export prospects has been fully reflected in the price. Further upward movement requires more positive changes in supply. The South American market is under pressure. Brazilian soybean export volume is expected to increase, and the price increase space is limited. Argentina also faces price pressure due to large production [3]. - The domestic soybean meal futures market has a near - term strong and long - term weak pattern. The near - term strength is due to factors such as crushing profit loss and tight long - term supply. The domestic spot market has a loose supply - demand relationship and high inventory [3]. - The domestic rapeseed meal futures market is affected by the uncertainty of Canadian rapeseed import, but the high inventory of granular rapeseed meal restricts the price increase [4]. 3.1.2 Strategies - Unilateral: Adopt a bearish view on the long - term contracts. - Arbitrage: Expand the MRM spread. - Options: Sell wide straddles [4]. 3.2 Core Logic Analysis 3.2.1 US Soybeans: Export Prospects Improve, and the Market Remains at a High Level - The US soybean futures market continues to show a high - level volatile trend. The export prospects have improved, but the price increase space is limited without a significant decline in supply. The US soybean harvest progress is expected to be fast, and the single - yield estimate has been slightly adjusted. The soybean crushing profit has declined, and the export is still slow with high uncertainty [8]. 3.2.2 South America: Sowing Slows Down, and Prices Decline - The South American soybean price shows a downward trend. The Brazilian soybean price has declined, and the new - crop price is relatively firm due to the slow sowing progress. The Brazilian soybean sowing is affected by weather, the demand is general, the crushing profit is low, and the export volume is expected to remain high. The Argentine new - crop sowing has started, and the supply is expected to decrease with limited market impact [11]. 3.2.3 Trade Relations: Changes Increase, and Soybean Meal Fluctuates at a High Level - The domestic soybean meal futures market shows a high - level volatile trend. The oil mill operating rate is expected to decline, the inventory pressure is large, and the crushing profit is average. The demand is good due to high livestock and poultry inventory, but the further inventory accumulation space is limited. The reduction of tariffs on US soybeans does not make them competitive, and the long - term soybean import is expected to decrease [14]. 3.2.4 Market Supply: Loose, and Demand Remains at a Low Level - The domestic rapeseed meal futures market shows a relatively strong trend. The market is affected by the uncertainty of Canadian rapeseed import. The supply of rapeseed for crushing is low, the inventory is low, and the demand is general. The high inventory of granular rapeseed meal makes the market supply - demand relationship relatively loose, and the price increase space is limited [17]. 3.3 Fundamental Data Changes 3.3.1 International Market - The data includes US soybean weekly sales, export inspection volume, monthly crushing volume, and weekly crushing profit; Brazilian and Argentine soybean monthly export and crushing volume [20][23]. 3.3.2 Foreign Premium - It shows the FOB prices of US Gulf, Brazil, and Argentina soybeans and the CNF price of rapeseed [25]. 3.3.3 Macro: Exchange Rate & International Shipping - It involves the exchange rates of the US dollar against the Chinese yuan, Brazilian real, and Argentine peso, and the shipping freight rates of Panamax vessels on different routes [32][38]. 3.3.4 Supply - The data includes soybean and rapeseed import volume and weekly crushing volume [40]. 3.3.5 Demand - It shows the weekly提货量 of soybean meal and rapeseed meal [42]. 3.3.6 Inventory - The data includes the inventory of soybeans, rapeseed, soybean meal, and rapeseed + rapeseed meal [45].