生猪月报：高空或反套-20251107

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The rebound in the pig market is mainly driven by frozen product storage and increased secondary fattening, leading to a bearish pattern of high slaughter volume and large body weight before the Spring Festival. The overall direction of the future market is to short on rebounds. Given the current high - position and low - price game situation, there is a possibility of a short - term rebound. Considering the large near - term supply and the expectation of capacity reduction in the long - term, the recommended strategies are first reverse spreads and then shorting after rebounds [11][12] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Spot Market: Since October, domestic pig prices have shown a trend of first falling, then rising, and then falling again. The average prices in Henan, Sichuan, and Guangdong have decreased. Supply and demand are in a game, and pig prices are expected to decline slightly with fluctuations [11][22] - Supply Side: In September, the official sow inventory was 40.35 million, 3.5% more than the normal level. Capacity reduction has started but is progressing slowly. From now to April next year, the basic supply is increasing monthly, and the market before the Spring Festival will face a bearish configuration [11] - Demand Side: After the National Day, demand has increased, but significant growth is expected after December [11] - Strategy: Recommend reverse spreads first, followed by shorting after rebounds. For single - side trading, short on rebounds for contracts 01 and 03; for arbitrage, conduct reverse spreads for 3 - 7 and 3 - 9 contracts [11][13] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Spot Trend: Pig prices have fluctuated, and the average weight of slaughtered pigs has increased. Supply and demand suggest a slight decline in pig prices [22] - Basis and Spread Trend: The basis has converged, and the monthly spread still favors reverse spreads [25] - Prices of Piglets and Sows: Data on prices of piglets, reserve sows, and culled sows are presented, but no specific trends are summarized in the text [27][28] 3.3 Supply Side - Reproductive Sows and Changes: In September, the official sow inventory decreased slightly, but was still higher than normal. Capacity reduction has started slowly [33] - Inventory and Slaughter: From the piglet data, the market before the Spring Festival will face a bearish situation [43] - Slaughter Proportion of Different - Sized Pigs: The proportion of small and large pigs in slaughter is not high, indicating limited impact of diseases and a limited number of fat pigs [46] - Trading and Post - Slaughter Weight: After the National Day, the slaughter volume remained high, and the market supply was large and excessive [50] 3.4 Demand Side - Slaughter Volume: After the National Day, demand has increased, but significant growth is expected after December [59] - Slaughtering Rate and Gross Margin: Data on slaughtering rate and gross margin are presented, but no specific trends are summarized in the text [61] - Spread and Price - Volume Relationship: Data on spreads and price - volume relationships are presented, but no specific trends are summarized in the text [63] - Fresh - Frozen Spread and Fresh Sales Rate: Data on fresh - frozen spreads and fresh sales rates are presented, but no specific trends are summarized in the text [65] 3.5 Cost and Profit - Cost and Breeding Profit: Due to factors such as feed cost and efficiency improvement, the cost is decreasing, but there has been an overall loss this year [70] 3.6 Inventory Side - Cost and Breeding Profit: The frozen product inventory is slowly recovering and in a state of active inventory accumulation [75]