苹果周报：新果陆续入库，果价稳定为主-20251107

Report Title - Apple Weekly Report: New Apples are Gradually Being Stored in Warehouses, and Apple Prices Remain Stable [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - This year, apple production has declined, the high - quality fruit rate is poor, and preservation is more difficult. Market expectations suggest that the cold - storage inventory data is likely to be lower. As of November 6, 2025, the national cold - storage inventory ratio was about 51.68%, a year - on - year decrease of 10.62 percentage points; the inventory was 6.8274 million tons, 17.04% lower than the same period last year. Considering that it's not the peak of storage yet, it's highly likely that this year's inventory will be lower than last year, and the apple quality is relatively poor, so the effective inventory is likely to be low. However, the current futures price is at a high level, with a significant increase in positions and greater market divergence. Short - term risks are relatively high, so it is recommended to wait and see [17]. Summary by Directory 1. Logic Analysis and Trading Strategies 1.1 Apple Spot Analysis - This week, the ground trading of new - season late Fuji apples is gradually ending, concentrated in Shandong and Shanxi. The storage work is in the later stage. In Shandong, some areas haven't completed the harvest, with many merchants, and striped apples are on the market. In terms of storage progress, Gansu has basically finished, Shaanxi is nearing completion, and in Shandong, some areas are still actively storing. The trading atmosphere in the sales areas is weak, with fewer trucks arriving during the week, and the demand side is under pressure. The prices in major producing areas are generally stable with a slight upward trend in Shandong and a slight decline in Shaanxi due to quality [7]. 1.2 Supply Analysis - As of November 6, 2025, the national cold - storage inventory ratio was about 51.68%, with an inventory of 6.8274 million tons, 17.04% lower than the same period last year. Shandong's cold - storage capacity utilization rate is 48.95% and is still in the storage process. Shaanxi's is 52.56%, with most areas having completed storage, and some areas still receiving external supplies. The overall storage in Shaanxi is lower than last year due to smaller fruit sizes and higher defect rates. There is a small amount of出库 from cold - storage recently, and there are reports of water - rotting apples in some cold - storages [12]. 1.3 Demand Analysis - In the Guangdong Chalong market, the number of trucks arriving in the morning has significantly decreased compared to last week, with an average of about 24 trucks per day. The new - season late Fuji apples are moving slowly, and there is pressure on daily digestion and some backlog in transit warehouses. The average wholesale price of 6 key - monitored fruits on November 7 was 6.94 yuan per kilogram, slightly lower than last Friday, at a medium - high level in recent years. The profit of storage merchants for Qixia 80 first - and second - grade apples in the 2025 - 2026 production season is temporarily not counted [15]. 1.4 Trading Strategies - Trading Logic: Apple fundamentals are strong, but the current price is high, and there is a large divergence between bulls and bears in the market. It is recommended to wait and see. - Unilateral: Wait and see. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Wait and see [17]. 2. Weekly Data Tracking 2.1 Apple Supply and Demand Situation - Not elaborated in detail in the provided content, only some historical data charts of apple production, consumption, and export are presented [21]. 2.2 Inventory and Shipment - Similar to the supply analysis, it shows the cold - storage inventory trends of apples in the whole country, Shandong, and Shaanxi over the years, and also the national cold - storage apple shipment trends [24]. 2.3 Spread and Basis - The report presents the historical data charts of 5 - month basis, 10 - month basis, 1 - 5 spread, 5 - 10 spread, and 1 - month basis, which can be used for analyzing the price differences between different contract months and the relationship between spot and futures prices [28].