银河期货煤炭日报-20251107

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a coal daily report dated November 7, 2025, focusing on the coal market [1] Group 2: Market Review - On November 7, port market quotes rose. The 5500 - kcal coal was quoted at 840 - 850 yuan/ton, 5000 - kcal at 740 - 750 yuan/ton, and 4500 - kcal at 640 - 650 yuan/ton. Different regions had different price ranges for various coal types [2] Group 3: Important Information - In October 2025, China imported 4173.7 million tons of coal, a 9.75% year - on - year decrease and a 9.27% decrease from September. From January to October 2025, China imported 38762.30 million tons of coal, a 11% year - on - year decrease [3] Group 4: Logic Analysis - Supply: Restrictions on production still affected the market. Coal mine opening rates in major production areas like Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia were generally stable. As of November 7, the opening rate in Ordos was 71%, and in Yulin was 46%. The daily coal output of Ordos and Yulin was over 3.8 million tons, and the domestic supply tightened [4] - Import: Affected by the improvement of domestic coal prices, the sentiment in the import market continued to warm up this week. Due to the good price advantage of imported coal, the inquiry enthusiasm of coastal power plants increased significantly, and the market trading atmosphere improved [4] - Demand: Some regions entered the coal - consuming peak season, and the power load showed an obvious upward trend. Most power plants operated at about 70% load, and the available days of power plant inventory remained at a high level. Power plants mainly fulfilled long - term contracts and made only a small amount of necessary purchases in the market [4] - Inventory: Railway transportation returned to normal. The daily average transportation volume of the Datong - Qinhuangdao line was 1 million tons, and the number of approved trains by the Hohhot Railway Bureau was around 20. Port inventory was generally stable. As of November 7, the inventory of Bohai Rim ports was 22.37 million tons, at a neutral level over the years. Coastal power plants had low daily consumption but continuous inventory reduction, while inland power plants had neutral inventory [4] - Forecast: It is expected that coal prices will rise in the short term as the production in major coal - producing areas is low, power plant inventory is decreasing, import profits are available, and both port inflow and outflow are low [4]