银河期货甲醇日报-20251107

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - In the high - inventory context, methanol will mainly continue its downward trend due to factors such as high domestic supply, increasing imports, and relatively stable downstream demand [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - Futures market: The futures market fluctuated and closed at 2112 (-4/-0.19%) [2] - Spot market: Various production and consumption regions and ports had different price quotes, with production areas like Inner Mongolia南线 at 1950 yuan/ton and consumption areas like Lunan at 2100 yuan/ton [2] Important Information - As of November 5, 2025, China's methanol port inventory was 151.71 million tons, an increase of 1.06 million tons from the previous period. East China saw inventory accumulation while South China had inventory reduction [3] Logical Analysis - Supply side: Coal - to - methanol profit is around 400 yuan/ton, with high and stable methanol operating rate and continuous domestic supply [4] - Import side: US dollar prices are stable, import profit margins are expanding, Iranian gas restrictions haven't occurred yet, and foreign operating rates are high [4] - Demand side: Traditional downstream industries enter the off - season with a decline in operating rate, while MTO device operating rate rebounds [4] - Inventory: The port inventory accumulation cycle has ended, with basis strong; inland enterprise inventory fluctuates slightly [4] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Short from high positions, do not chase short [9] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [9] - Options: Sell call options [9]