锌月报：国内锌矿收紧，锌锭增速放缓-20251107

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report In October, zinc prices declined and then rebounded. The industry's focus was on the short squeeze of LME zinc and domestic zinc smelting production cuts. The registered warehouse receipts of LME zinc ingots reached a new low in recent years, and the high LME zinc spread opened the domestic zinc ingot export window. With the decrease in imported zinc ore and the increase in domestic zinc smelting winter stockpiling demand, the zinc ore TC declined, and the zinc smelting profit decreased, leading to a slowdown in zinc ingot supply growth. The downstream demand remained generally stable, and the total domestic zinc ingot inventory gradually increased. The major short positions in the previous main contract of SHFE zinc significantly reduced, and some turned into net long positions. The registered warehouse receipts of LME zinc slightly increased, alleviating the overseas structural risk. Considering the recent macro - events and the positive sentiment in the commodity market, SHFE zinc is expected to be strong in the short term, but the upside space for zinc prices is limited during the surplus cycle [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment - Price Review: In October, zinc prices declined and then rebounded. The LME zinc registered warehouse receipts hit a new low of 22,900 tons in recent years, and the high LME zinc spread opened the domestic zinc ingot export window. As of November 6, the SHFE zinc index rose 0.10% to 22,691 yuan/ton, with a total unilateral trading position of 225,700 lots. The LME zinc 3S fell 16 to $3,054.5/ton, with a total position of 228,600 lots. The average price of SMM 0 zinc ingot was 22,500 yuan/ton [11]. - Domestic Structure: The domestic social inventory slightly decreased to 158,700 tons, and the SHFE zinc futures inventory was 68,000 tons. The basis in Shanghai was - 55 yuan/ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first - month contract was - 45 yuan/ton. The LME zinc inventory was 34,000 tons, and the cancelled warehouse receipts were 4,300 tons. The basis of the cash - 3S contract was $98.23/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was $53.2/ton. The ex - exchange rate SHFE - LME ratio was 1.046, and the zinc ingot import loss was 4,211.76 yuan/ton [11]. - Industry Data: The domestic TC of zinc concentrate was 2,850 yuan/metal ton, and the imported TC index was 103 dollars/dry ton. The port inventory of zinc concentrate was 248,000 physical tons, and the factory inventory was 616,000 physical tons. The weekly operating rates of galvanized structural parts, die - cast zinc alloys, and zinc oxide were 57.54%, 52.50%, and 58.19% respectively [11]. - Outlook: The domestic zinc ore inventory continued to decline, the zinc concentrate processing fee dropped again, and the domestic zinc smelting profit decreased, resulting in a decline in monthly zinc ingot production. With downstream demand remaining stable, the total domestic zinc ingot inventory slowly increased. SHFE zinc is expected to be strong in the short term, but the upside space is limited [11]. 3.2 Macro Analysis The report presents multiple charts related to the US fiscal and debt situation, the Fed's balance sheet, dollar liquidity, manufacturing PMIs of China and the US, and manufacturing new and unfinished orders in the US, but no specific analysis conclusions are provided [14][16][19][20]. 3.3 Supply Analysis - Zinc Ore Supply: In September 2025, the domestic zinc ore production was 314,500 metal tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.0% and a month - on - month decrease of 8.8%. From January to September, the cumulative zinc ore production was 2,739,800 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 3.5%. The net import of zinc ore in September was 505,400 dry tons, a year - on - year increase of 25.2% and a month - on - month increase of 8.6%. From January to September, the cumulative net import of zinc ore was 4,000,600 dry tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 41.0%. The total domestic zinc ore supply in September was 541,900 metal tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.0% and a month - on - month decrease of 2.2%. From January to September, the cumulative domestic zinc ore supply was 4,540,100 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 10.3% [25][27]. - Zinc Ingot Supply: In October 2025, the zinc ingot production was 617,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 21.4% and a month - on - month increase of 2.8%. From January to October, the cumulative zinc ingot production was 5,686,300 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 10.1%. The net import of zinc ingot in September was 23,300 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 58.1% and a month - on - month decrease of 16.2%. From January to September, the cumulative net import of zinc ingot was 267,700 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 21.1%. The total domestic zinc ingot supply in September was 623,400 tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.3% and a month - on - month decrease of 4.7%. From January to September, the cumulative domestic zinc ingot supply was 5,336,800 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 6.8% [33][35]. 3.4 Demand Analysis - Initial - stage Demand: The weekly operating rates of galvanized structural parts, die - cast zinc alloys, and zinc oxide were 57.48%, 53.13%, and 56.36% respectively. The raw material inventories were 13,000 tons, 13,000 tons, and 3,000 tons respectively, and the finished product inventories were 370,000 tons, 10,000 tons, and 5,000 tons respectively [39]. - Apparent Demand: In September 2025, the domestic zinc ingot apparent demand was 622,900 tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.9% and a month - on - month increase of 3.9%. From January to September, the cumulative domestic zinc ingot apparent demand was 5,193,600 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.7% [41]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory - Domestic Balance: In September 2025, the domestic zinc ingot supply - demand difference was a surplus of 500 tons. From January to September, the cumulative domestic zinc ingot supply - demand difference was a surplus of 143,200 tons [52]. - Overseas Balance: In July 2025, the overseas refined zinc supply - demand difference was a surplus of 3,000 tons. From January to July, the cumulative overseas refined zinc supply - demand difference was a surplus of 28,200 tons [55]. 3.6 Price Outlook - Domestic Structure: The domestic social inventory slightly decreased to 161,500 tons. The SHFE zinc futures inventory was 67,800 tons. The basis in Shanghai was - 30 yuan/ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first - month contract was - 5 yuan/ton [60]. - Overseas Structure: The LME zinc inventory was 34,900 tons, and the cancelled warehouse receipts were 6,100 tons. The basis of the cash - 3S contract was $96.02/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was $46.49/ton [63]. - Cross - market Structure: The ex - exchange rate SHFE - LME ratio was 1.04, and the zinc ingot import loss was 4,272.74 yuan/ton [64]. - Position Analysis: The net position of the top 20 holders of SHFE zinc turned net long, the net long position of LME zinc investment funds increased, and the net short position of commercial enterprises decreased, indicating a short - term bullish sentiment from the position perspective [67].