Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The alumina futures price has been oscillating downward due to high production, increasing warehouse receipts, and high inventory. Although there was a brief rebound at the end of October driven by the strengthening of the non - ferrous sector, it quickly reversed. The current price is near the cost of most manufacturers, and ore price fluctuations and production reduction actions will determine the future price trend. - The alumina spot price is under pressure due to high monthly production and continuous inventory accumulation. The oversupply situation is expected to persist until large - scale production cuts occur. - After the rainy season, the bauxite shipping will gradually resume, and the ore price is expected to decline. The over - capacity pattern in the alumina smelting sector is difficult to change in the short term, and the inventory accumulation trend continues. However, as the current price is close to the cost line of most manufacturers, the expectation of future production cuts is increasing. Considering the strong performance of the overall non - ferrous sector, short - term short - selling is not cost - effective. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2600 - 2900 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to supply - side policies, Guinea's ore policies, and the Fed's monetary policy. [11][12] Summary by Directory 1. Monthly Assessment - Futures Price: As of November 7, the alumina index has fallen 3.15% since September 30 to 2801 yuan/ton. The high production, increasing warehouse receipts, and high inventory have driven the futures price to oscillate downward. The basis fluctuated narrowly in October, and as of November 7, the Shandong spot price was at a discount of 3 yuan/ton to the main alumina contract price. The spread between the first - and third - month contracts continued to widen, with the near - month contract weakening due to the weak spot market and the far - month contract being relatively strong due to production reduction expectations. - Spot Price: The monthly alumina production remained at a high level this year, and the inventory accumulation trend continued, putting pressure on the spot price. As of November 7, 2025, the spot prices in Guangxi, Guizhou, Henan, Shandong, Shanxi, and Xinjiang were 2930 yuan/ton, 2960 yuan/ton, 2855 yuan/ton, 2780 yuan/ton, 2840 yuan/ton, and 3120 yuan/ton respectively, with significant drops compared to early October. The decline in the southern region was greater than that in the northern region. - Inventory: As of November 7, the total social inventory of alumina increased by 251,000 tons to 4.588 million tons compared to early October. The alumina futures warehouse receipts increased by 99,600 tons to 106,300 tons, and the inventory in the SHFE delivery warehouse increased by 16,500 tons to 253,700 tons. [11] 2. Supply - side - In 2025, the alumina production in September was 7.746 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.69% and a month - on - month decrease of 1.68%. The cumulative production in the first nine months was 66.84 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.82%. - New production capacity projects in the first three quarters were successfully put into operation and gradually released production. However, the uncertainty of new production in the fourth quarter has increased due to profit fluctuations. - The alumina spot price has been continuously declining, and the profit of alumina plants is under pressure. The production profit in different regions varies, with Guangxi having a relatively high profit, while some inland regions using imported ore are at a loss. [40][43][45] 3. Raw Material - side - Bauxite Price: Domestic bauxite production has decreased recently due to environmental regulations in the north and the rainy season in the south, but the price remains firm. The price of imported bauxite is expected to decline further after the rainy season as the overseas shipping volume is stable and the port inventory is high. - Bauxite Production: In October 2025, China's bauxite production was 4.77 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.00% and a month - on - month decrease of 2.25%. The cumulative production in the first ten months was 50.52 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.22%. - Bauxite Import: In September 2025, China imported 15.88 million tons of bauxite, a year - on - year increase of 37.45% and a month - on - month decrease of 19.77%. The cumulative import in the first nine months was 157.64 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 31.97%. - Inventory: As of October 31, 2025, the global bauxite shipping volume remained stable at a high level. China's bauxite port inventory was 27.36 million tons, and the total bauxite inventory increased by 240,000 tons to 52.5 million tons in October, remaining at a high level in the past five years. [12][25][27] 4. Import and Export - In September 2025, the net export of alumina was 186,400 tons, maintaining a net export status. The cumulative net export in the first nine months was 1.4512 million tons. - As of November 7, the monthly Australian FOB price decreased by 1 US dollar/ton to 320 US dollars/ton, and the import profit and loss was - 46 yuan/ton. The overseas alumina price fluctuated in the range of 315 - 320 US dollars this month, and the domestic spot price continued to decline, leading to a decrease in import profit and loss. [48][51] 5. Demand - side - In September 2025, China's electrolytic aluminum production was 3.68 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.73% and a month - on - month decrease of 2.86%. The cumulative production in the first nine months was 33.07 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.73%. - The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum in September 2025 was 44.56 million tons, an increase of 160,000 tons from the previous month. The operating rate of electrolytic aluminum increased by 0.35% month - on - month to 97.47%. [55][58] 6. Inventory - As of November 7, the total social inventory of alumina increased by 251,000 tons to 4.588 million tons compared to early October. The alumina futures warehouse receipts increased by 99,600 tons to 106,300 tons, and the inventory in the SHFE delivery warehouse increased by 16,500 tons to 253,700 tons. [63][64]
氧化铝月报：累库幅度仍未趋缓，期价震荡寻底-20251107
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-11-07 14:55