钢材月报：需求复苏乏力，政策信心托底-20251107

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In October 2025, the steel market presented a pattern of "high production and weak demand, with the peak season not being prosperous," and the price center continued to decline. The consumption of rebar was still weak due to the drag of real estate and infrastructure, while the plate end was relatively strong driven by exports and manufacturing, but there was still inventory pressure under the background of high production. With the implementation of policies and the improvement of the macro - environment, the subsequent steel demand is expected to reach an inflection point [11][12][13] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Valuation: In October 2025, the average profitability rate of steel mills was 48.83%, showing a significant decline. The immediate profit of rebar in the long - process (blast furnace) in East China was about - 51 yuan/ton, and the electric furnace profit was about - 60 yuan/ton, with the losses of steel mills further expanding [11] - Supply: In October 2025, the output of rebar was 10.3124 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 746,200 tons; the output of hot - rolled coils was 16.1584 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.9213 million tons. The average daily pig iron output was about 2.3859 million tons per week, slightly decreasing compared with the previous month but still at a relatively high level [11] - Demand: In October 2025, the apparent consumption of rebar was 10.722 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.3485 million tons, with the demand rebounding month - on - month; the apparent consumption of hot - rolled coils was 15.9379 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.2462 million tons, showing relatively strong demand. The recovery of the manufacturing industry drove the improvement of plate demand, but the recovery of real estate and infrastructure investment was still weak, and the demand structure was significantly differentiated [11] - Inventory: As of the end of October, the rebar inventory was 6.0252 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.6779 million tons; the hot - rolled coil inventory was 4.0659 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 524,200 tons. The hot - rolled coil inventory continued to run at a high level, and there was still pressure on overall inventory accumulation [11] 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - Multiple charts are provided to show the price trends, trading volumes, basis, and price differences of rebar and hot - rolled coils in different regions and contracts, as well as the price trends and price differences of cold - rolled coils, color - coated coils, and galvanized sheets [25][27][30] 3.3 Profit and Inventory - Profit: Multiple charts show the disk profits, gross profits per ton, and spot profits of rebar, hot - rolled coils, cold - rolled coils, etc. For example, the rebar disk profit and hot - rolled coil disk profit in the 01 contract from 2021 - 2025 are presented [81] - Inventory: Multiple charts show the inventory data of rebar, hot - rolled coils, steel billets, etc., including total inventory, factory inventory, and social inventory [94][97][106] 3.4 Cost End - Multiple charts show the cost - related data, such as the ratio of rebar to iron ore futures, the ratio of rebar to coke futures, daily pig iron output, billet prices, scrap steel prices, scrap steel consumption, etc. [112][115][118] 3.5 Supply End - Multiple charts show the output, output cumulative year - on - year growth rate, and capacity utilization rate of rebar and hot - rolled coils [134][136][139] 3.6 Demand and Import - Export - Domestic demand: Multiple charts show the apparent consumption and cumulative year - on - year growth rate of rebar and hot - rolled coils, as well as the production and export volume of household appliances such as refrigerators, washing machines, and air conditioners [146][149][152] - Import - export: Multiple charts show the monthly import and export volume of steel, rebar, and plates [160][161][164]