Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market is likely to continue to fluctuate. The central bank's restart of buying and selling government bonds is positive for bond market sentiment in the short - term. In the medium - term, the bond market in the fourth quarter is mainly affected by fundamentals, the implementation time of the new fund fee regulations, and institutional allocation power. Overall, the supply - demand pattern of the bond market in the fourth quarter may improve, and the market may maintain a volatile trend under the background of weak domestic demand recovery and improved inflation expectations. The bond market is expected to recover with fluctuations, and the long - term strategy is to buy on dips [14][15]. Summary by Directory 1. Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Economic and Policy Situation: In October, the manufacturing PMI was lower than expected, with both supply and demand under pressure. The non - manufacturing PMI met expectations and showed a slight improvement. The "anti - involution" has boosted price expectations, but the coordination between demand and production needs further observation. In terms of exports, October's export data was lower than expected, with exports to the US declining and non - US exports maintaining resilience. The Fourth Plenary Session emphasized achieving the annual economic and social development goals, and as the economic growth rate in the first three quarters was relatively high, the pressure to achieve the goal this year is not large. Policy may focus more on policies for the connection with next year, and there is no strong need for additional measures in the fourth quarter. Overseas, the Fed cut interest rates in October, and subsequent inflation and employment data will indicate whether there will be a rate cut in December [11]. - Major Events: The People's Bank of China and the Bank of Korea renewed the bilateral local currency swap agreement with a scale of 400 billion yuan/70 trillion won for five years. On November 5, the Ministry of Finance issued 4 billion US dollars of sovereign bonds in Hong Kong, which were well - received by the market. The State Council Tariff Commission adjusted the tariff measures on US - originated goods. Some Fed officials expressed their views on interest rate cuts, and US financial system liquidity was approaching a dangerous level. China's October export and import data were released, and the foreign exchange reserve scale increased slightly [11][12][13]. - Liquidity: This week, the central bank conducted 495.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, with 2.068 trillion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 1.5722 trillion yuan. The DR007 interest rate closed at 1.43% [14]. - Interest Rates: The latest 10 - year Treasury yield was 1.81%, up 1.14 BP week - on - week; the 30 - year Treasury yield was 2.16%, up 1.00 BP week - on - week; the latest 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.11%, unchanged week - on - week [14]. - Trading Strategy: The recommended strategy is to buy on dips for a 6 - month period, with a profit - loss ratio of 3:1. The core driving logic is loose monetary policy and the difficulty of credit improvement [16]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets - Contract Performance: Presented the closing prices, annualized discounts, settlement prices, and net basis of T, TL, TF, and TS contracts, as well as the closing prices and trading volumes of TS, TF, T, and TL contracts [19][23][26][29][31][36]. 3. Main Economic Data - Domestic Economy - GDP and PMI: In the third quarter of 2025, the actual GDP growth rate was 4.8%, exceeding market expectations. In October, the manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous value, while the service PMI was 50.2%, up 0.1 percentage point [41]. - Manufacturing PMI Sub - items: In October, both supply and demand in the manufacturing industry were under pressure. The production index decreased by 2.2 percentage points to 49.5%, and the new order index decreased by 0.9 percentage points. Domestic demand recovery was still insufficient [47]. - Price Index: In September, CPI同比 decreased by 0.3%, core CPI同比 increased by 1.0%, and PPI同比 decreased by 2.3%. In terms of month - on - month data, CPI环比 was 0.1%, core CPI环比 was 0.0%, and PPI环比 was 0.0% [50]. - Export and Import: In October 2025, China's import and export data were slightly lower than expected. Exports (in US dollars) decreased by 1.1% year - on - year, and imports increased by 1.0% year - on - year. Exports to the US decreased by 25.1% year - on - year, while exports to ASEAN maintained a relatively high growth rate of 10.9% year - on - year [53]. - Industrial and Consumption Data: In September, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value was 6.4%, and the year - on - year growth rate of social consumer goods retail sales was 3.0%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous value [56]. - Investment and Real Estate: From January to September, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment was - 0.5%, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real estate investment was - 13.9%. In September, the month - on - month growth rate of second - hand housing prices in 70 large and medium - sized cities was - 0.6%, and the year - on - year growth rate was - 5.2% [59]. - Foreign Economy - US Economy: In the second quarter, the US GDP at current prices on an annualized basis was 3.0331 trillion US dollars, with an actual year - on - year growth rate of 1.99% and a quarter - on - quarter growth rate of 3.0%. In September, the US CPI and core CPI data were released, and the ISM manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMI data were also reported. In August, the order amount of durable goods increased by 7.63% year - on - year, and the number of non - farm payrolls increased by 22,000 [68][71][74]. - EU and Eurozone Economy: In the third quarter, the EU GDP increased by 1.5% year - on - year and 0.3% quarter - on - quarter. In September, the eurozone CPI and core CPI data were released, and in October, the manufacturing and service PMI data were reported [74][77]. 4. Liquidity - Money Supply and Social Financing: In September, the M1 growth rate was 7.2%, and the M2 growth rate was 8.4%. The M1 - M2 gap continued to narrow. The social financing increment was 3.53 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year decrease of 233.9 billion yuan. The growth of social financing mainly came from government bonds [82]. - Social Financing Sub - items: In September, the year - on - year growth rate of government bonds in social financing slowed down, and the financing of the real - economy sector remained stable. The social financing growth rate of the household and enterprise sectors was 5.94%, and the growth rate of government bonds was 20.20% [85]. - MLF and Reverse Repurchase: In September, the MLF balance was 5.85 trillion yuan, with a net injection of 300 billion yuan. This week, the central bank conducted 2.068 trillion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, with 867.2 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net injection of 1.2008 trillion yuan. The DR007 interest rate closed at 1.46% [88]. 5. Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - Interest Rate Changes: Presented the latest interest rates, daily, weekly, and monthly changes of various types of interest rates, including repurchase rates, Treasury bond yields, and US Treasury bond yields [92]. - Interest Rate and Exchange Rate Charts: Presented charts of Treasury bond yields, inter - bank pledged repurchase rates, US Treasury bond yields, Treasury bond yields of the UK, France, Germany, and Italy, the Fed's target interest rate, and exchange rates [95][97][100].
国债月报：债市或延续震荡-20251107
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-11-07 14:56