东北玉米上量增加，盘面反弹有限

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Corn: The US corn is expected to have a high yield, but the yield per unit may be further reduced later. The 12 - contract of US corn has strong support at 400 cents per bushel and will fluctuate narrowly in the short term. The focus of the market is on the grain - selling rhythm in Northeast China, with expected selling pressure in November. Northeast corn is weak in the short term, while the supply in North China is increasing. The spot price of corn is oscillating at the bottom. The 01 corn futures will oscillate at the bottom with limited short - term rebound, and the 05 is expected to oscillate strongly [4][5]. - Starch: The operating rate of starch factories is rising, but downstream demand is weak, resulting in an increase in inventory. The spot price of starch is relatively weak, and there is still room for the spot price to fall with the large - scale listing of new corn. The 01 corn starch will follow the corn to oscillate at the bottom [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - Corn Situation: The US corn is expected to see a yield per unit reduction, but the yield is high. The 12 - contract of US corn has strong support at 420 cents per bushel. There is no profit in importing US corn. The market focus is on the Northeast selling rhythm, with expected selling pressure in November. Northeast corn is weak, North China's supply is increasing, and the spot price is at the bottom. The North Port purchase price may fall to around 2070 yuan/ton. The 01 corn futures will oscillate at the bottom with limited rebound, and the 05 is expected to oscillate strongly [4]. - Starch Situation: The operating rate of starch factories is rising, downstream demand is weak, and inventory is at a historical high. The spot price of starch is relatively weak, and there is still room for it to fall. The 01 corn starch will follow the corn to oscillate at the bottom [4]. - Trading Strategies: Try to buy the 12 - contract of US corn below 420 cents per bushel. Long - term buy the 05 corn below 2220. Try to buy 01 corn and sell 01 starch, and shrink the spread when it is high. Adopt the strategy of accumulating purchases for the 05 corn at low prices [5]. 3.2 Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis 3.2.1 International Market - Supply and Demand: According to the USDA's September report, although the yield per unit of US corn may be further reduced, the overall supply is still loose. The ending stocks of global and US corn have slightly decreased. The import tariffs of US corn and sorghum in China have been adjusted, but there is still no profit in importing US corn [8][11]. - Market Position and Ethanol Production: As of September 23, the non - commercial net short position of US corn increased, and ethanol production increased. The 12 - contract of US corn oscillates around 430 cents per bushel [17]. 3.2.2 Domestic Market - Inventory and Consumption: Feed enterprise corn inventory increased but is lower than the same period last year. Deep - processing consumption increased, and inventory decreased slightly but is expected to increase next week. North Port corn inventory increased, and South Port grain inventory decreased [21][22][25]. - Grain - Selling Progress: The grain - selling progress is faster than last year. The overall progress of 13 provinces is 22%, 3% higher than the same period last year; the progress of 7 provinces is 18%, 2% higher than the same period last year [28]. - Starch Market: The operating rate of starch factories increased, downstream demand was weak, inventory increased significantly year - on - year, and enterprise profits decreased [32]. - Substitute Market: The wheat price is basically stable, and the price difference between wheat and corn has widened [39]. 3.3 Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking - Livestock and Poultry Breeding: From October 30 to November 6, the self - breeding and self - raising profit of pigs was - 35 yuan per head, a decrease of 10 yuan per head from last week; the profit of purchasing piglets was - 117 yuan per head, an increase of 13 yuan per head from last week. The breeding profit of white - feather broilers was - 0.31 yuan per bird, and the egg - laying hen breeding profit was - 0.52 yuan per catty [48][54]. - Starch Downstream Consumption: The operating rate of starch sugar and paper mills increased. The operating rate of F55 high - fructose syrup was 40.67%, an increase of 2.62% from last week; the operating rate of maltose syrup was 43.09%, an increase of 1.48% from last week. The operating rate of corrugated paper was 69.9%, an increase of 0.73% from last week; the operating rate of boxboard paper was 71.47%, an increase of 0.63% from last week [57]. - Prices of Corn and Substitutes: The price of wheat in North China is around 2490 yuan/ton, and the price difference between wheat and corn has widened [39].