EC周报：11月下半月拉涨动力减弱，EC盘面冲高回落-20251107

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The motivation for shipping companies to continue driving up freight rates in the second half of November is weakening. The market has already factored in the peak - season expectations in advance, and short - term fluctuations are expected. It is recommended to wait and see for both single - side trading and arbitrage [5][62]. - The demand for shipping is expected to gradually improve from November to December, but short - term performance needs to be tracked based on shipping companies' cargo - booking performance after the China - US meeting and tariff adjustments. The adjustment of the last trading day due to the Spring Festival holiday arrangement may affect the valuation of the EC2602 contract [5][62]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy - Freight Rate Performance: On November 7th, the SCFI European route was reported at $1323 per TEU, a month - on - month decrease of 1.6%. On November 3rd, the SCFIS European route was reported at 1208.71 points, a month - on - month decrease of 7.9% [5][11]. - Supply - Demand Analysis: Shipping companies' long - term contracts have improved, but the motivation to drive up freight rates in the second half of November is weakening. From the fundamental perspective, the demand is expected to improve from November to December. The weekly average capacity from Shanghai to the five Nordic ports in October, November, and December this year is 233,600, 265,700, and 291,500 TEU respectively, and 300,000 TEU in January 2026. There are changes in ship schedules such as cancellations, delays, and ship replacements [5][62]. - Trading Strategy: For single - side trading, it is recommended to wait and see due to expected short - term fluctuations. For arbitrage, also wait and see [5][62]. Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis - Market Performance: The EC futures market showed a trend of rising first and then falling this week. The quotes from major shipping companies in the second half of November were lower than expected, which weakened the market's expectation of the implementation of the rate increase, leading to the decline of the EC futures price to around 1800 points [8]. - Spot Freight Rates: The latest SCFI European route has a slight decline. The motivation to drive up freight rates in the second half of November is insufficient, and the future freight rate increase may be limited. The SCFIS European route also decreased, with the decline slightly exceeding market expectations [11][15][21]. Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking - Supply - Side Data - On November 7th, the deployed capacity on European routes (including the Mediterranean) was 509,600 TEU, showing a slight increase compared to the previous week [25]. - Shipping companies' capacity allocation is more frequent in December. Attention should be paid to shipping companies' blank - sailing plans [28]. - The weekly average capacity of the Shanghai - Nordic route in October, November, and December is 233,600, 265,700, and 291,500 TEU respectively, and 300,000 TEU in January 2026. There are changes in ship schedules such as cancellations, delays, and ship replacements [30]. - Demand - Side Data - The US tariff increase in August has affected global trade. In October, China's total exports decreased by 1.1% year - on - year, a significant drop of 9.4 percentage points from the previous month. China's exports to the US continued to decline sharply, while exports to the EU only increased by 0.9%, and exports to ASEAN maintained a growth rate of 11% [35]. - The export performance of different industries varied. The export of mechanical and electrical products remained dominant, with significant growth in the export of integrated circuits and automobiles [35]. - The performance of US - bound and non - US - bound routes continued to diverge. The impact of tariffs may still interfere with the shipping rhythm. In August 2025, the container shipping volume from Asia to Europe was 1.85 million TEU, a year - on - year increase of 11.8%, while the shipping volume from Asia to North America was 2.014 million TEU, a year - on - year decrease of 12.3% [42]. - In October, the European economy showed an uneven recovery. The service industry led the growth, but the manufacturing industry was still under pressure. Germany and France showed significant differences, with Germany performing strongly and France's economy continuing to contract [47]. - The China - US tariff negotiation results basically met expectations. China and the US have made adjustments to tariff policies, and attention should be paid to their impact on shipping [49][50]. - Turnover - Side Data: The proportion of container ships on European and Mediterranean routes taking detours has dropped to about 60%. As of November 7th, 2025, the number of container ships taking detours on European and Mediterranean routes was 245, accounting for 63% [51]. - Geopolitical Risk: The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is volatile. Attention should be paid to the follow - up progress of the cease - fire agreement [54][56].