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华创医药投资观点&研究专题周周谈 · 第149期:2025年1-8月实体药店市场分析-20251108
Huachuang Securities·2025-11-08 08:28

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Recommended" rating for the innovative drug sector, highlighting the potential for value reassessment as companies transition from generic to innovative products [45]. Core Insights - The innovative drug industry is expected to shift from quantity logic to quality logic, emphasizing the importance of differentiated products and internationalization of pipelines [10]. - The medical device market is experiencing a recovery in bidding volumes, particularly in imaging equipment, and is benefiting from government subsidies for home medical devices [10][50]. - The report indicates a significant decline in the retail scale of physical pharmacies, with a cumulative scale of 395.2 billion yuan from January to August 2025, down 2.2% year-on-year [16]. Market Analysis Innovative Drugs - The number of innovative products in the pipeline has increased significantly, with expectations of launching five new innovative products annually over the next three years [45]. - The revenue share from innovative products is projected to exceed 50% by 2025, indicating a successful transition to a more innovative product structure [45]. Medical Devices - The imaging equipment market is recovering, with a notable increase in procurement activities expected in late 2024 [50]. - Home medical devices are benefiting from government subsidies, which are expected to drive growth in this segment [50]. Retail Pharmacy - The retail scale of physical pharmacies has been under pressure due to policy constraints and increased competition, leading to a decline in profitability [16]. - The cumulative scale of retail pharmacies in July and August 2025 was 991 billion yuan, reflecting a 2.5% year-on-year decline [16]. Product Categories - All product categories in the pharmacy sector showed negative growth from January to August 2025, with the largest decline seen in health products, which dropped over 17% [20]. - The pharmaceutical market saw a cumulative scale of 321.7 billion yuan, down 1.2% year-on-year, with specific declines attributed to reduced demand for respiratory medications [24]. Traditional Chinese Medicine - The market for traditional Chinese medicine is experiencing a decline, with a cumulative scale of 302 billion yuan, down 4.7% year-on-year [25]. - The retail scale of traditional Chinese medicine showed signs of stabilization in August, with a slight month-on-month increase [25]. Health Products - The health product market saw a cumulative scale of 149 billion yuan, down 17.7% year-on-year, although there was a slight recovery in August [33]. Chemical Drugs - The top 20 chemical drug categories accounted for 78.0% of sales in July, with notable growth in categories such as hemostatic drugs and immunosuppressants [37][40]. - The market share for chemical drugs in August increased to 78.5%, with several categories showing positive year-on-year growth [38][40].