华阳股份（600348）：煤炭增量确定，盈利弹性较大

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for Huayang Co., Ltd. [4] Core Views - Huayang Co., Ltd. is positioned as a leading producer of anthracite coal, with a strong focus on expanding into renewable energy sectors. The company has a solid foundation in coal mining, with a total production capacity of 40.9 million tons per year and a strategic shift towards solar and energy storage solutions [6][7][8]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Huayang Co., Ltd. is a state-owned enterprise in Shanxi Province, primarily engaged in coal mining, electricity generation, and renewable energy. The company has a total share capital of 3,607.5 million shares and a market capitalization of approximately 32,178.9 million yuan [4][14]. Coal Production and Growth - The company has nine operational mines with a total approved production capacity of 40.9 million tons per year, primarily focusing on the production of high-value anthracite coal, which constitutes over 90% of its coal resources. The company is set to increase its production capacity significantly through the completion of several mining projects and acquisitions [6][8][32][33]. - In 2024, the company will see an increase in production capacity from its Ping Shu and Yu Shu Po mines, with a total capacity increase of 1 million tons per year expected from the Qiyuan and Bolin mines [8][32][35]. Electricity and Renewable Energy - The electricity generation segment is expected to grow significantly due to the commissioning of the Xishangzhuang project, which will increase the company's annual electricity output from approximately 1 billion kWh to 5.864 billion kWh in 2024. The company is also focusing on developing its renewable energy business, including solar and sodium-ion battery technologies [6][39][49]. - The company has initiated a sodium-ion battery project, which is expected to produce 20,000 tons of positive electrode materials and 12,000 tons of negative electrode materials annually once fully operational [49][51]. Financial Projections - The report forecasts that Huayang Co., Ltd. will achieve revenues of 238.87 billion yuan in 2025, with a projected growth rate of -5% for that year, followed by growth rates of 13% and 9% in 2026 and 2027, respectively. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 16.74 billion yuan in 2025, with a corresponding P/E ratio of 19.2x [11][41].