流动性跟踪：3M买断式何以“等量”？

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - At the beginning of the month, seasonal stability dominated the funds, with disturbances mainly from the concentrated issuance of government bonds and a relatively high scale of reverse repurchase withdrawals. Towards the weekend, the money market tightened slightly [1][10]. - Since the reform of the 3M repurchase - style reverse repurchase operation in June, it has mostly been implemented at the beginning of the month and mostly with excess renewals, except in September and November. This may reflect banks' consideration of retaining flexibility in liability management [2][13]. - Next week, disturbances will increase marginally, including a significant increase in the maturity scale of certificates of deposit (CDs), the withdrawal of 70 billion yuan of 3M repurchase - style reverse repurchases, and a relatively large issuance scale of local government bonds. However, before the tax period, funds are expected to remain balanced and loose overall, and the central bank may increase liquidity injection if necessary [3][22]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 11 - month 3M Repurchase - style Reverse Repurchase Equal - volume Renewal - At the beginning of the month, reverse repurchase injections were relatively restrained, with a daily net withdrawal scale exceeding 20 billion yuan, and the net withdrawal scale at the beginning of the month was at a relatively high level since the second quarter. Coupled with the concentrated issuance of two government bonds on Friday, the money market tightened slightly [1][10]. - In October, the central bank resumed bond purchases, with a net purchase of 2 billion yuan. This not only serves as a liquidity injection tool but may also be used to guide the shape of the yield curve [10]. - After the cross - month period, CD rates fluctuated within a narrow range. Due to the low maturity scale at the beginning of the month and limited renewal pressure, combined with potential benefits from MLF and repurchase - style reverse repurchase injections in terms of volume and price, and the decline in short - term rates at the end of October, the cost - effectiveness of CDs was highlighted [1][11]. - In September and November, the money market was stable at the beginning of the month with limited disturbances. Banks had a low willingness to supplement liquidity through repurchase - style reverse repurchases and preferred to wait for clearer liquidity demand times in the middle or end of the month for active management [2][13]. - In October, the net injection scale of 3M repurchase - style reverse repurchases was relatively large, mainly due to the impact of holidays, large - scale withdrawals in the open market after the holiday, and fewer working days in October, which led to an increase in the average daily issuance scale of CDs [2][13]. 3.2 Open Market - From November 3 - 7, the open market had a net withdrawal of 87.22 billion yuan, including 49.58 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase injections, 206.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase maturities, and 70 billion yuan of 3M repurchase - style reverse repurchase injections [25]. - From November 10 - 14, the open market will have 119.58 billion yuan of maturities, including 49.58 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase maturities and 70 billion yuan of 3M repurchase - style reverse repurchase maturities [22][25]. 3.3 Government Bonds - From November 3 - 7, government bonds were issued with a scale of 387.5 billion yuan, including 295.9 billion yuan of treasury bonds and 91.6 billion yuan of local government bonds. The net payment for treasury bonds was 2.49 billion yuan, and for local government bonds was 1.19 billion yuan [35]. - From November 10 - 14, government bonds are planned to be issued with a scale of 281.6 billion yuan, including 60 billion yuan of treasury bonds and 221.6 billion yuan of local government bonds. The net payment for treasury bonds will be 230.9 billion yuan, and for local government bonds will be 173.3 billion yuan [35]. 3.4 Excess Reserve Tracking and Prediction - It is predicted that the excess reserve ratio in November 2025 will be about 1.51%, a month - on - month increase of about 0.05 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 0.16 percentage points [38]. - From November 3 - 7, the open market had a net withdrawal of 87.22 billion yuan, and the net payment for government bonds was 3.68 billion yuan. The predicted fiscal revenue - expenditure difference was - 20.78 billion yuan, and the reserve requirement was 4.5 billion yuan [39]. 3.5 Money Market - As of November 7, compared with October 31, DR001 rose 1.37 BP to 1.33%, DR007 fell 4.21 BP to 1.41%, R001 fell 1.53 BP to 1.39%, and R007 fell 2.46 BP to 1.47% [41]. - The overnight interest rate was below 1.4%. As of November 7, compared with October 31, "DR001 - OMO" rose to - 6.79 BP, "DR007 - OMO" fell to 1.3 BP, "R001 - OMO" fell to - 0.84 BP, and "R007 - OMO" fell to 6.77 BP [41]. - The weekly average of SHIBOR overnight and 7 - day interest rates changed by - 7.54 BP and - 8.28 BP respectively to 1.32% and 1.42% [47]. - The weekly average of CNH HIBOR overnight and 7 - day interest rates changed by 5.13 BP and 0.97 BP respectively to 1.46% and 1.55% [47]. - The weekly average of FR007S1Y and FR007S5Y interest rates changed by 0.14 BP and 0.12 BP respectively to 1.54% and 1.59% [50]. - The weekly average of the six - month national - share transfer discount rate and the six - month city - commercial transfer discount rate changed by 0.13 percentage points to 0.6% and 0.71% respectively [50]. 3.6 Certificates of Deposit 3.6.1 Primary Market - From November 3 - 7, the total issuance scale of CDs was 52.68 billion yuan, and the net financing amount was 16.27 billion yuan. Compared with the previous week, the issuance scale decreased, and the net financing amount increased. City commercial banks had the highest issuance scale and net financing amount [63]. - The weighted average issuance term of CDs this week was 7.56 months, longer than 6.92 months in the previous week. The weighted average issuance terms of state - owned banks, joint - stock banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks were 8.4, 8.5, 6.7, and 7.3 months respectively, with changes of 1.89, 0.66, 1.16, and 1.02 months compared with the previous week [67]. - Next week (November 10 - 16), the maturity scale of CDs will be 71.63 billion yuan, an increase of 35.22 billion yuan compared with this week. The maturity is mainly concentrated in joint - stock banks and city commercial banks, and the terms are mainly concentrated in 6M and 1Y [72]. 3.6.2 Secondary Market - The yields of CDs of all terms increased. The yields of 1M, 3M, 6M, 9M, and 1Y AAA - rated CDs changed by 7, 0.5, 0.5, 0.25, and 0.25 BP respectively to 1.48%, 1.56%, 1.6%, 1.63%, and 1.63% [83]. - The yields of most - rated CDs increased. The yields of 1Y CDs of AAA, AAA -, AA +, AA, and AA - ratings changed by 0.25, 0.25, 0.25, - 0.75, and - 0.75 BP respectively to 1.63%, 1.64%, 1.67%, 1.72%, and 1.88% [84].