2025年12月沪深300、上证50和科创50等指数调整名单预测

• The report predicts adjustments to the constituent stocks of major indices, including CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000, CSI 2000, SSE 50, and STAR 50, based on publicly available index compilation rules and data [5][10][16][18][20] - CSI 300 Index is constructed by selecting the top 50% stocks based on average daily trading volume over the past year, followed by the top 300 stocks ranked by average daily market capitalization, while adhering to a 10% adjustment limit, priority for old samples, and a 20% buffer zone rule [5] - The adjustment prediction for CSI 300 Index involves calculating the average daily market capitalization and trading volume of A-shares over the past year, excluding stocks with suspension, violations, or financial reporting issues [5] - The report defines a "shock coefficient" to measure the price impact and duration caused by passive index fund rebalancing, calculated as: $ Shock Coefficient = (Passive Buy Amount - Passive Sell Amount) / Average Daily Trading Volume $ This coefficient is applied to assess the impact of adjustments on stocks [6][9] - CSI 500 Index is constructed by excluding CSI 300 constituent stocks and the top 300 stocks by average daily market capitalization over the past year, followed by removing the bottom 20% stocks by average daily trading volume, and selecting the top 500 stocks by market capitalization, adhering to a 10% adjustment limit, priority for old samples, and a 10% buffer zone rule [10] - CSI 1000 Index is constructed by excluding CSI 800 constituent stocks, the top 300 stocks by market capitalization, and stocks with insufficient liquidity (bottom 20% by trading volume), selecting the top 1000 stocks by market capitalization over the past year [16] - CSI 2000 Index is constructed by excluding CSI 800 and CSI 1000 constituent stocks, the top 1500 stocks by market capitalization, and selecting the top 2000 stocks by market capitalization over the past year [16] - SSE 50 Index is constructed by selecting the top 50 stocks by market capitalization and liquidity from the Shanghai Stock Exchange, adhering to adjustment rules similar to other indices [18] - STAR 50 Index is constructed by selecting the top 50 stocks by market capitalization from STAR Market, excluding stocks with delisting risks, major violations, or low liquidity (bottom 10% by trading volume) [20] - The report predicts adjustments to the STAR 50 Index, with two stocks, Aojie Technology-U and Shengke Communication-U, being added [20] - The shock coefficients for the predicted adjustments are calculated for each stock, with the highest coefficients observed for stocks such as Guangqi Technology and Ningbo Port in CSI 300, and Sheneng Shares and Suzhou Supor in CSI 500 [7][11][19][21]