钢铁行业周报（20251103-20251107）：淡季来临供需双弱，短期关注库存降库节奏-20251108

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the steel industry, indicating a cautious outlook due to seasonal demand weakness and supply constraints [2][4]. Core Viewpoints - The steel industry continues to experience a dual weakness in supply and demand, with average daily pig iron production from sample steel mills decreasing by 21,400 tons. The industry is entering a traditional off-season, leading to a seasonal decline in demand, with weekly consumption of major materials dropping by 494,700 tons. Profit margins for sample enterprises have fallen below 40%, indicating ongoing profit contraction and potential for increased maintenance activities among steel mills. Consequently, the supply side may see further reductions, but weak demand during the off-season is unlikely to provide effective support for steel prices in the short term [3][10]. - The steel sector index closed at 2,736.97 points, reflecting a weekly increase of 4.39%, outperforming the broader market index which rose by 0.63% during the same period [4][6]. - The report emphasizes a long-term positive outlook on the "anti-involution" trend, which is expected to optimize the supply structure and align it better with demand changes, potentially leading to a revaluation of industry logic and recovery in sector valuations [10]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - As of November 7, the steel industry comprises 53 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 1,086.616 billion yuan and a circulating market value of 971.138 billion yuan [6]. Production Data - The total production of the five major steel products reached 8,567,400 tons, with a week-on-week decrease of 185,500 tons. The average daily pig iron production from 247 steel enterprises was 2,342,200 tons, down by 21,400 tons week-on-week. The capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces was 87.81%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points [9][10]. Consumption Data - Weekly consumption of the five major materials totaled 8,669,300 tons, reflecting a week-on-week decline of 494,700 tons. Specific product consumption changes included a decrease of 136,700 tons for rebar and 102,100 tons for wire rods [9][10]. Inventory Situation - Total steel inventory reached 15,035,700 tons, with a week-on-week decrease of 101,900 tons. Social inventory decreased by 21,000 tons to 10,750,000 tons, while steel mill inventory fell by 80,900 tons to 4,285,700 tons [9][10]. Profitability - As of November 7, the gross profit margins for high furnace rebar, hot-rolled sheets, and cold-rolled sheets were -39 yuan/ton, -80 yuan/ton, and -118 yuan/ton, respectively. The profitability rate among the sample steel enterprises was 39.83%, down by 5.19 percentage points week-on-week [9][10].