股指期货周报：储能等板块继续走强，上证再度站上4000点-20251108

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - The Sino-US economic and trade consultations have achieved positive results, and the domestic index trend remains relatively independent. The Fourth Plenary Session released the conference communiqué, and the "15th Five-Year Plan" was released, emphasizing the importance of scientific and technological innovation. The technology sector rebounded significantly, and the energy storage sector continued to explode, extending to upstream battery cell materials. In the medium to long term, the domestic market is driven by internal factors, with a continuous influx of incremental funds, and the stock index still has upward momentum after consolidation [3]. - The international situation is complex, but the Sino-US economic and trade consultations have reached consensus in multiple aspects such as tariffs and maritime affairs. The US has entered a new interest rate cut cycle, which is beneficial for the appreciation of the RMB and the return of foreign capital, bringing new incremental funds. The current policies to stabilize the capital market are positive, and the bottom line of the stock index is clear. New technologies and new consumption are driving the economic outlook to stabilize and recover. The "15th Five-Year Plan" raises the requirements for scientific and technological innovation and expands domestic demand, with the major policy directions for the next five years taking shape. After the risk-free interest rate drops to a low level, the entry of medium to long-term funds and individual investors into the market will enter a new cycle. The future performance of the index depends on trading volume. If the trading volume of the two markets can remain above 2 trillion yuan, the market can maintain relative strength. It is recommended to focus on allocating technology growth sectors with certain profitability, such as semiconductors and AI computing power, and also pay attention to the rotation allocation value of low-valued defensive sectors such as finance (securities) and consumption [4]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Performance - This week, domestic stock indices rose slightly. The weekly and year-to-date changes of major domestic indices are as follows: the Shenwan Primary Industry Index showed mixed performance, with sectors such as power equipment, coal, and petroleum and petrochemicals rising significantly, while sectors such as beauty care, computer, and pharmaceutical biology declined [11][15]. Liquidity - In September, government bonds supported social financing, the return of wealth management funds promoted the recovery of M2, while M1 remained in a continuous slump. The core support for the increase in social financing in September came from government bond issuance, while the weakness of RMB loans was the main drag, indicating that the recovery of real economic financing demand still takes time. The M1 - M2 "scissors gap" continued to narrow. As of the end of September, the M2 balance was 009.48 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 6.8%, and the growth rate rebounded by 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, ending the consecutive decline. The M1 balance was 82.82 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 7.4%, and the decline rate expanded by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, remaining in negative growth for seven consecutive months [13][16]. Trading Data and Sentiment - This week, the trading volume of the two markets increased slightly, and the index strengthened in a volatile manner. The monthly new account openings showed fluctuations. The trading volume of the two markets (MA5) remained around 2 trillion yuan, and liquidity is an important factor supporting the current index and needs continuous monitoring [26]. Index Valuation - As of November 8, 2020, the latest PE of the Shanghai Composite Index was 16.64, with a quantile of 84.47, and the latest PB was 22.20, with a quantile of 85.48. Among the major stock indices, the valuation quantiles are in the order of CSI 1000 > CSI 500 > SSE 300 > SSE 50. The index valuation is at an absolute low level [34]. Index Industry Weight - As of June 30, 2025, the weights of the SSE 50 in banking, non-bank finance, and food and beverage are relatively high, accounting for 21.31%, 15.48%, and 13.88% respectively, and the electronics industry has become the fourth-largest weighted industry. The weights of the CSI 300 are more diversified, with the top three weighted industries being banking, non-bank finance, and electronics. The top three weighted industries of the CSI 500 are electronics, pharmaceutical biology, and non-bank finance. The top three weighted industries of the CSI 1000 are electronics, pharmaceutical biology, and computer [42][43]. Other Overseas and Domestic Policy Tracking - Domestic policy tracking: In 2025, the government work report and the Two Sessions in March set the economic growth target, implemented a moderately loose monetary policy, and a more proactive fiscal policy. In May, the deposit reserve ratio and policy interest rates were lowered, and a 500 billion yuan loan for service consumption and elderly care was established. In September, the achievements of the financial industry during the "14th Five-Year Plan" were summarized, and policies for the "15th Five-Year Plan" were set. In October, the Fourth Plenary Session communiqué put forward 7 major goals and 12 major deployments for the "15th Five-Year Plan", focusing on science and technology and expanding domestic demand [48][49]. - The US Federal Reserve is about to enter a new interest rate cut cycle, with a 25BP rate cut in October. As of November 7, the probability of another rate cut in December exceeds 60%, and there may be one more rate cut this year [50].