流动性：宽松正在兑现，资金价格愈发乐观

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - Friday's marginal tightening of funds and the central bank's "shortening and lengthening" operations do not indicate a marginal shift in the central bank's attitude. Since June, liquidity has been mainly characterized by easing, and the number of optimistic funding indicators has further increased in November. The central bank's easing is gradually being realized, and DR001 could move towards 7 - day OMO - 20BP. For certificates of deposit, continue with the current allocation and wait for the capital gain game space after the expectation of interest rate cuts rises [4][5]. - The marginal tightening of funds on Friday and the central bank's "shortening and lengthening" operations are due to frictions in fund delivery, not a change in the central bank's attitude. With OMO returning to net investment, the probability of stable low - level funding prices is higher. The "shortening and lengthening" operation does not represent a change in the central bank's attitude. The central bank's policy is supportive, and it is beneficial for banks' net interest margins and the stability of funding prices at a low level [4]. 3. Summary by Related Directory 3.1. 1. Loose Policy is Being Realized, and Funding Prices are Becoming More Optimistic - Central Bank Operations: The central bank adopted a "shortening and lengthening" approach. It carried out advance equal - volume roll - overs of repurchase agreements and continuously withdrew short - term liquidity while ensuring a proper level of overall liquidity. For example, on November 4, it announced bond - buying of 200 billion yuan in October, and on November 5, it advanced the equal - volume roll - over of the 70 - billion - yuan 3 - month repurchase agreement due on November 7 [14]. - Fund Quantity: The bank's net lending ability is closely linked to the central bank's operations. Institutions slightly increased leverage. After the fiscal support at the beginning of the month and the injection of liquidity through bond - buying, the net lending of state - owned and joint - stock banks continued to rise. Institutions increased leverage due to low funding prices, and the segmentation of non - bank funds remained at a low level [14]. - Funding Prices: The performance of funding price indicators is more optimistic. DR001 was mostly stable at 1.31%, Shibor 3M continued to decline, and DR007 started to approach the 7 - day OMO rate. Since October, the proportion of DR001 weighted around 1.31% has become more concentrated, Shibor 3M has been on a downward trend since the central bank announced "restarting bond - buying" on October 28, and DR007 has shown a trend of approaching the 7 - day OMO rate [16]. - Reasons for Friday's Marginal Tightening of Funds: The marginal tightening of funds on November 7 was due to the friction in fund delivery. Although the central bank advanced the roll - over of the 70 - billion - yuan 3 - month repurchase agreement, the large - scale withdrawal of 7 - day liquidity caused short - term disturbances, but this does not represent a change in the central bank's attitude [18]. - Analysis of the "Shortening and Lengthening" Operation: Different from the period of financial de - leveraging from 2016 to 2017, the current central bank's "shortening and lengthening" operation is to inject medium - and long - term liquidity while reducing the price of relevant liquidity tools, which is beneficial for banks' net interest margins and the stability of funding prices at a low level [20][21]. - Certificate of Deposit Situation: After the month - end, the selling pressure of small and medium - sized banks on certificates of deposit decreased significantly. Non - bank institutions such as money market funds and wealth management subsidiaries were more active in trading before the bond - buying announcement. In the future, the lower limit of certificates of deposit is constrained by the non - cut of policy interest rates, but it is difficult for 1 - year certificates of deposit to be significantly higher than 1.63%. The current level of certificates of deposit can continue to be allocated [23][24]. 3.2. 2. Weekly Tracking of Funds and Certificates of Deposit and Key Matters - Central Bank: This week, the central bank had a net withdrawal of 157.22 billion yuan from reverse repurchases and advanced the equal - volume roll - over of the 3 - month repurchase agreement. Next week, 49.58 billion yuan of short - term funds will mature, and there will be 100 billion yuan of repurchase agreement funds and 90 billion yuan of MLF due in November [32]. - Government Bonds: This week, the net financing of government bonds was 13.84 billion yuan, with a cumulative net financing of 1.15576 trillion yuan and a net financing progress of 83.4%, and a net payment of 3.68 billion yuan. Next week, the net financing will be 24.98 billion yuan, with a cumulative net financing of 1.17987 trillion yuan and a net financing progress of 85.1%, and a net payment of 36.92 billion yuan. There will be a 30 - year treasury bond issuance on November 14, and the issuance proportion of treasury bonds and local government bonds with a term of 10 years and above is about 31.03% and 73.00% respectively [32]. - Bills: After the month - end, the bill - boosting effect weakened, and bill interest rates generally increased. As of November 7, the 3 - month and 6 - month straight - discount and transfer - discount interest rates of state - owned and joint - stock banks all increased compared with October 31 [52]. - Exchange Rate: This week, the RMB depreciated by 0.13% against the US dollar. The swap points of USDCNH/USDCNY were around 1400 points/1300 points. The central bank's regulation of the exchange rate was weak, with the mid - price of the US dollar against the RMB slightly depreciating, and the counter - cyclical factor narrowing to around 358 pips [54][58]. - Fund Supply and Demand: The net lending of state - owned banks increased, the net lending of money market funds and wealth management subsidiaries decreased, and most non - bank institutions increased leverage. Except for insurance, the leverage ratios of other institutions increased. Overnight funding prices slightly increased, and the 7 - day funding price decreased. Except for the last trading day, the funding feeling was loose [60][73]. - Certificates of Deposit - Primary Market: This week, the net financing of certificates of deposit was 15.099 billion yuan, with an issuance progress of 18.6%. State - owned banks' net financing turned positive, while joint - stock banks' net financing turned negative. The weighted issuance duration of certificates of deposit increased, and the proportion of long - term certificate of deposit issuance by banks increased [78][80][82]. - Certificates of Deposit - Secondary Market: After the month - end, the selling pressure of banks on certificates of deposit decreased. Before the bond - buying announcement, trading activity was high, and non - bank institutions were strong buyers. After the announcement, trading activity and non - bank buying power decreased. This week, the yield of certificates of deposit fluctuated downward, and the 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit yield was 1.6300% [86][89]. 3.3. 3. Central Bank: Pay Attention to the Roll - Over of 6 - Month Repurchase Agreements - This Week: The central bank had a net withdrawal of 157.22 billion yuan from reverse repurchases, and advanced the equal - volume roll - over of the 3 - month repurchase agreement. The balance of reverse repurchases was 49.58 billion yuan as of November 7, still higher than the seasonal level [36]. - Next Week: 49.58 billion yuan of short - term funds will mature, and there will be 100 billion yuan of repurchase agreement funds and 90 billion yuan of MLF due in November [38]. 3.4. 4. Government Bonds: Next Week's Net Payment will Rise to 36.92 Billion Yuan - This Week: The net financing of government bonds was 13.84 billion yuan, with a cumulative net financing of 1.15576 trillion yuan and a net financing progress of 83.4%, and a net payment of 3.68 billion yuan [42]. - Next Week: The net financing will be 24.98 billion yuan, with a cumulative net financing of 1.17987 trillion yuan and a net financing progress of 85.1%, and a net payment of 36.92 billion yuan. The net financing progress of treasury bonds is 86.1% (higher than the historical average), and the issuance progress of new local government general bonds, new local government special bonds, and special refinancing bonds is 86.4%, 88.3%, and 94.4% respectively (lower than the historical average) [42][43]. 3.5. 5. Bills: The Bill - Boosting Effect Weakens, and Bill Interest Rates Generally Increase - After the month - end, the bill - boosting effect weakened, and bill interest rates generally increased. As of November 7, the 3 - month and 6 - month straight - discount and transfer - discount interest rates of state - owned and joint - stock banks all increased compared with October 31 [52]. 3.6. 6. Exchange Rate: The RMB Depreciates - This week, the RMB depreciated by 0.13% against the US dollar. The swap points of USDCNH/USDCNY were around 1400 points/1300 points. The central bank's regulation of the exchange rate was weak, with the mid - price of the US dollar against the RMB slightly depreciating, and the counter - cyclical factor narrowing to around 358 pips [54][58]. 3.7. 7. Market Fund Supply and Demand: The Net Lending of State - Owned Banks Continues to Recover - The net lending of state - owned banks increased, the net lending of money market funds and wealth management subsidiaries decreased, and most non - bank institutions increased leverage. Except for insurance, the leverage ratios of other institutions increased. Overnight funding prices slightly increased, and the 7 - day funding price decreased. Except for the last trading day, the funding feeling was loose [60][73]. 3.8. 8. Certificates of Deposit: The Net Financing of State - Owned Banks Turns Positive, and the Weighted Issuance Duration Increases - Primary Market: This week, the net financing of certificates of deposit was 15.099 billion yuan, with an issuance progress of 18.6%. State - owned banks' net financing turned positive, while joint - stock banks' net financing turned negative. The weighted issuance duration of certificates of deposit increased, and the proportion of long - term certificate of deposit issuance by banks increased [78][80][82]. - Secondary Market: After the month - end, the selling pressure of banks on certificates of deposit decreased. Before the bond - buying announcement, trading activity was high, and non - bank institutions were strong buyers. After the announcement, trading activity and non - bank buying power decreased. This week, the yield of certificates of deposit fluctuated downward, and the 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit yield was 1.6300% [86][89].