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餐饮供应链专题报告:经营拐点渐现,价值重估在即
CAITONG SECURITIES·2025-11-08 14:30

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the food and beverage industry [1] Core Insights - Supply and demand are rebalancing, with capital expenditure peaks passing and demand gradually recovering under policy and consumption recovery [5][10] - New growth drivers are emerging through product innovation and channel expansion, breaking the price competition [5][36] - The industry logic is strengthening, with the standardization of prepared dishes and an increase in chain rates driving industry concentration [5][36] - Investment recommendations focus on the supply chain opportunities in the restaurant sector, highlighting major companies and smaller firms with growth potential [5][36] Summary by Sections Supply and Demand Rebalancing - Capital expenditure in the industry has significantly declined after 2023, with a focus on improving capacity utilization [5][10] - The price war is gradually coming to an end, and the third quarter of 2025 may mark an operational turning point for the industry [5][22] - Demand is stabilizing, with restaurant openings and closures balancing out, and consumption showing resilience during peak holiday periods [5][26][27] New Growth Drivers - Companies are shifting focus from price competition to product innovation and channel expansion, with retail trends becoming more pronounced [5][36] - Major companies are launching new products and optimizing channels to adapt to the changing market landscape [5][44] Strengthening Industry Logic - Recent regulatory developments in prepared dishes are expected to raise industry entry barriers, benefiting compliant leading companies [5][36] - The chain rate in the restaurant sector is projected to increase from 19% in 2021 to 23% in 2024, indicating a trend towards consolidation [5][36] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on major companies like Anjuke Food, Angel Yeast, and Haitian Flavoring, as well as smaller firms like Baoli Food and Lihigh Food for potential growth [5][36] - The overall market is expected to improve with a favorable chip structure and policy expectations [5][36]