Autowell(SH:688516) Guolian Minsheng Securities·2025-11-08 14:52Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [6] Core Views - The company's Q1-Q3 2025 revenue was 4.67 billion yuan, down 33% year-on-year, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 390 million yuan, down 66% year-on-year. The Q3 single-quarter revenue was 1.29 billion yuan, down 49% year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to shareholders was 80 million yuan, down 79% year-on-year. The performance pressure is mainly due to the phase of overcapacity in the photovoltaic sector affecting product sales and increased R&D investment [4][12][13] - The company is expected to navigate through the industry cycle via both organic growth and acquisitions, with projected revenues for 2025-2027 at 5.83 billion, 5.67 billion, and 6.33 billion yuan, respectively, showing a year-on-year decline of 37% in 2025, a slight decline of 3% in 2026, and a growth of 12% in 2027. Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 530 million, 710 million, and 910 million yuan for the same years, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 59% in 2025, followed by growth of 35% in 2026 and 29% in 2027 [15] Financial Performance Summary - For Q1-Q3 2025, the company's gross margin was 30.2%, down 2.9 percentage points year-on-year, and the net margin was 7.4%, down 10 percentage points year-on-year. The Q3 single-quarter gross margin was 36.6%, up 4.7 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 4.5%, down 13 percentage points year-on-year. The company recognized asset impairment losses of 131 million yuan and credit impairment losses of 142 million yuan, accounting for 5.85% of revenue [14] - The company's operating expense ratio for Q1-Q3 2025 was 16.9%, up 7.5 percentage points year-on-year, with sales expense ratio at 2.6%, management expense ratio at 5.9%, financial expense ratio at 0.8%, and R&D expense ratio at 7.6%, reflecting increased investment in R&D to enhance core technology competitiveness [14] Financial Data and Valuation - The company's projected revenues for 2023, 2024, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E are 6.302 billion, 9.198 billion, 5.832 billion, 5.665 billion, and 6.333 billion yuan, respectively, with growth rates of 78.05%, 45.94%, -36.59%, -2.86%, and 11.79% [16] - The projected net profit attributable to shareholders for the same years is 1.256 billion, 1.273 billion, 525 million, 707 million, and 912 million yuan, with growth rates of 76.10%, 1.36%, -58.78%, 34.71%, and 29.01% [16]