煤炭：旺季临近煤价持续上涨，进口煤同环比下滑

Investment Rating - The coal industry is rated as "stronger than the market" [7] Core Views - The report emphasizes that the fundamental goal is to reverse the Producer Price Index (PPI) decline, which has narrowed to a year-on-year decrease of 2.3% in September. Coal prices are expected to stabilize, with the lowest point for coal prices in 2025 potentially being a policy bottom. The report anticipates more supply-side policies to be introduced as competition becomes more regulated [5][6] - The coal industry is seen as being in a golden era due to energy transformation demands and strict capacity controls under carbon neutrality policies. The supply of coal is expected to be rigid, with increasing costs and regional supply differentiation [5][6] Summary by Sections Coal Prices - As of November 7, 2025, the Qinhuangdao 5500K thermal coal price is 817 CNY/ton, up 6.1% week-on-week. The average daily output from 462 sample mines is 5.493 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 4,200 tons, but a year-on-year decrease of 6.2% [3][30][40] - The report notes significant price increases in various coal types, with Inner Mongolia's coal price rising by 7.34% and Shanxi's by 10.13% [30][31] Coking Coal - The price of coking coal at the Jing Tang Port is 1860 CNY/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 5.68%. The average daily output from 523 sample mines is 738,000 tons, down 2.0% week-on-week [4][78] - The report highlights a decrease in the average available days of coking coal in steel mills, indicating tighter supply [78] Supply and Demand - The report indicates that the daily consumption of the six major power plants has slightly decreased to 754,000 tons, with a year-on-year decline of 4.6%. The inventory level is at 14.214 million tons, also reflecting a year-on-year decrease [42][44] - Methanol and urea production rates are reported at 87.8% and 82.7%, respectively, indicating a stable demand in the chemical sector [47] Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong resource endowments and stable operating performance, such as China Shenhua, China Coal Energy, and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry [6] - Companies with production growth potential and those benefiting from the coal price cycle are also highlighted as investment targets [6]