Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several steel companies, including Hualing Steel, Baosteel, Nanjing Steel, and others [3][4]. Core Views - The steel industry is gradually entering the off-season, with differentiated performance among various products. Steel production and apparent consumption are both declining, indicating seasonal characteristics. Inventory reduction rates are similar to previous years, but absolute inventory levels remain high. Steel mill profits are at low levels, and a seasonal downward trend is expected in both supply and demand [3][4]. - The report highlights that the production structure is changing, with some steel mills shifting from rebar production to plate production due to weak real estate demand. This has led to an increase in plate production and a decrease in rebar production, with supply changes outpacing demand changes in the short term [3][4]. Summary by Sections Price Trends - As of November 7, 2025, steel prices have decreased, with rebar priced at 3200 CNY/ton, down 10 CNY/ton from the previous week. Hot-rolled and cold-rolled prices also saw declines of 60 CNY/ton and 50 CNY/ton, respectively [1][10]. Production and Inventory - Total steel production for the week was 8.57 million tons, a decrease of 185,500 tons from the previous week. Social inventory decreased by 20,400 tons to 10.7383 million tons, while steel mill inventory fell by 80,900 tons [2][3]. Profitability - Steel mill profits have declined, with rebar, hot-rolled, and cold-rolled margins decreasing by 7 CNY/ton, 38 CNY/ton, and 10 CNY/ton, respectively. Electric arc furnace steel margins also fell by 14 CNY/ton [1][3]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several stocks, including Hualing Steel, Baosteel, Nanjing Steel, and others, highlighting their potential for recovery in profitability due to capacity regulation and precise management [3][4].
钢铁周报20251109:逐步进入淡季,品种表现分化-20251109