Mtalco(SH:601677) Orient Securities·2025-11-09 05:09Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 19.8 CNY, based on a 12X valuation of the estimated EPS for 2025-2027 [3][5]. Core Insights - The company is experiencing a steady increase in profit per ton, driven by a strategic shift towards high-end products and continuous capacity expansion [2][11]. - The company’s revenue for Q3 2025 reached 8.874 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 6.39%, with a net profit attributable to the parent company of 464 million CNY, up 35.94% year-on-year [11]. - The company is focusing on high-end, green, and intelligent manufacturing, which is expected to enhance processing fees and stabilize profit margins [11]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: 26,442 million CNY - 2024: 32,321 million CNY (22.2% YoY growth) - 2025: 36,887 million CNY (14.1% YoY growth) - 2026: 40,090 million CNY (8.7% YoY growth) - 2027: 43,240 million CNY (7.9% YoY growth) [9]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to grow from 1,347 million CNY in 2023 to 2,315 million CNY in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 17.1% from 2025 to 2027 [9]. - The EPS is expected to increase from 1.08 CNY in 2023 to 1.86 CNY in 2027 [9]. Production and Capacity Expansion - The company has produced 1.1808 million tons of aluminum plates and foils in the first three quarters of 2025, with a single-season production of 384,200 tons in Q3 2025 [11]. - New production lines are being established to enhance high-end aluminum processing capabilities, including projects aimed at the automotive and green energy sectors [11]. - The company is also upgrading its waste aluminum recycling technology, which is expected to yield higher profits as the EU's carbon border adjustment mechanism is implemented in 2026 [11].