Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-11-09 05:15Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the home appliance industry, particularly highlighting the resilience of the white goods sector and the potential for growth driven by policy changes and market dynamics [3][5]. Core Insights - The home appliance sector has shown stronger export performance compared to domestic sales, with various segments experiencing differing trends in sales and production [4][12]. - The report identifies three main investment themes: white goods, export-driven companies, and core components, recommending specific companies within these categories for investment [5][6]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - In September 2025, the air conditioning sector saw a total production of 10.57 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 13.5%, while total sales were 10.88 million units, down 10.2%. Domestic sales were 5.95 million units, down 2.5%, and exports were 4.94 million units, down 18.1% [4][34]. - The refrigerator sector reported a production of 8.72 million units, a slight decrease of 0.5%, with total sales of 8.34 million units, a marginal increase of 0.12%. Domestic sales fell by 7.35% to 3.87 million units, while exports rose by 7.63% to 4.47 million units [4][41]. - The washing machine sector experienced a production increase of 10.4% to 9.05 million units, with total sales rising by 7.52% to 8.85 million units. Domestic sales decreased by 6.88% to 4.06 million units, while exports surged by 23.76% to 4.79 million units [4][43]. Investment Themes - The white goods sector is expected to benefit from a reversal in real estate policies, with characteristics such as low valuation, high dividends, and stable growth making it attractive for investment. The report suggests that the "trade-in" policy could act as a catalyst for growth [5][6]. - For export-driven companies, the report recommends firms like Ousheng Electric and Dechang Co., which are expected to see revenue growth from large customer orders and expanding automotive parts businesses [5][6]. - In the core components segment, companies like Huaxiang Co. and Shun'an Environment are highlighted for their competitive advantages and growth potential in the context of rising demand for key components in the white goods sector [5][6]. Market Dynamics - The report notes that the overall home appliance index underperformed compared to the CSI 300 index, with a decline of 0.5% in the home appliance sector index while the CSI 300 rose by 0.8% [5][7]. - The report emphasizes the importance of emerging markets in driving export growth, particularly in regions like Africa and South America, despite challenges such as tariffs and high inventory levels [5][12].