港股 2026 年投资策略：聚焦 AI 应用主线，把握 PPI-CPI 轮动节奏

Group 1: Overall Market Strategy - The report suggests that Hong Kong stocks are expected to outperform the market, focusing on AI applications and the PPI-CPI rotation rhythm [1][2] - It anticipates a significant inflow of southbound funds into Hong Kong stocks, with a net inflow of 1.4 trillion RMB expected in 2025, marking a historical record [2] - The target price range for Hong Kong stocks in 2026 has been raised to 29,000-32,000 points based on weighted risk premiums [2] Group 2: Sector Focus - AI applications are highlighted as a key area for investment in 2026, with potential impacts across various sectors including internet/software, media, hardware, semiconductors, automotive, and retail [2] - The PPI chain is expected to benefit midstream manufacturing and upstream raw materials industries due to greater improvement in PPI compared to CPI in the first half of 2026 [2] - Non-bank financials, including insurance and brokerage firms, are projected to benefit from market prosperity, with sustained performance expected [2] Group 3: Economic Outlook - The report indicates that the U.S. economy is expected to experience a soft landing, with a potential shallow recession being supported by rapid interest rate cuts [1][2] - It notes that the unemployment rate is a critical indicator, with a threshold set at 4.5% to monitor potential disruptions [1][2] - The report emphasizes that the Chinese stock market is positioned for a slow and steady growth trajectory, with significant opportunities in information technology and consumption during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [1][2]