春季行情的节奏与布局

Core Insights - The spring market trend is shifting towards an earlier start and finish, with significant historical evidence showing that in 4 out of the last 8 years, the spring rally began in December of the previous year [1][2][3] Group 1: Market Timing and Trends - The traditional spring rally in A-shares typically starts in January-February and lasts until March-April, but recent trends indicate a notable shift towards earlier initiation [1][2] - The analysis of market performance since 2010 reveals that the spring rally's time window has significantly advanced, with the most substantial gains occurring before the Spring Festival [1][3] Group 2: Economic and Policy Factors - The "running ahead" phenomenon is attributed to two main factors: the transformation of economic regulation, which has weakened the seasonal characteristics of policies, and the "learning effect" among market participants leading to preemptive positioning [2][3] - The reliance on traditional growth engines, such as real estate and infrastructure, has diminished, resulting in a reduced impact of early-year liquidity injections on market confidence [2][3] Group 3: Sector Performance and Positioning - Historical data indicates that growth styles have consistently outperformed during spring rallies, with small-cap and growth styles typically beating large-cap and value styles [5][6] - The average return of the index during spring rallies has been 21.7%, with an 81% success rate for generating excess returns [6][19] Group 4: Future Market Outlook - The upcoming spring rally is expected to focus on growth-oriented sectors, particularly those aligned with global trends in technology, such as AI, and domestic policy initiatives under the "14th Five-Year Plan" [7][8] - The anticipated policy focus on technological innovation and modern industrial systems is likely to enhance the attractiveness of sectors related to advanced manufacturing and supply-side reforms [7][8]