11月信用策略：信用利差压缩后半场

Core Insights - The report indicates that the credit spread compression is entering its second half, with expectations of further declines in the bond market during November and December due to central bank actions and reduced government bond supply [5][8]. - The credit market has shown limited room for further gains, particularly for short to medium-term credit bonds, as many have approached or breached previous lows [2][13]. - The behavior of institutional investors is constrained by upcoming regulatory changes and valuation adjustments, leading to limited incremental funds for credit bonds [3][14]. Credit Market Performance - In October, the bond market experienced fluctuations, with credit spreads narrowing as the 10-year government bond yield decreased from 1.788% to 1.741% by the end of the month [1][8]. - The narrowing of credit spreads was more pronounced in medium to long-term credit bonds compared to short-term ones, indicating a preference for longer durations [1][8]. - The report highlights that the valuation of credit bonds, particularly those rated AAA and AA+, has limited downward space, with most nearing previous lows [2][13]. Institutional Behavior - The anticipated reform of fund fee structures has led to a significant reduction in bond fund volumes, with a cautious approach expected from funds until the formal guidelines are released [3][14]. - Wealth management products are expected to maintain stable incremental funds, but their allocation to bonds may remain conservative due to valuation adjustments required by year-end [3][14]. - The recent performance of the Sci-Tech Innovation Bond ETF has shown limited growth, indicating a lack of substantial incremental demand in the credit market [3][14]. Seasonal Trends - Historically, credit spreads tend to fluctuate towards the end of the year, with limited independent trends observed in the fourth quarter [4][5]. - The report notes that while the credit market may not perform poorly at year-end, it often lags behind interest rate movements, with institutions prioritizing government bonds [4][5]. Future Outlook - The report suggests that the credit spread compression is likely to continue, with a focus on structural opportunities within the credit market as incremental funds remain limited [5][8]. - For investors seeking excess returns, the report recommends exploring lower-rated bonds in the 4-5 year range or focusing on longer-duration bonds with stable liquidity [5][8].